气候变化情景下破碎景观中东北虎跨境保护网络模拟研究

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is a flagship species of the boreal forest ecosystem in northeastern China and Russia Far East. During the past century, the Amur tiger population has declined sharply, and its habitat area has become much smaller and greatly fragmented. The primary causes for the decline of the tiger population were poaching, prey scarcity, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation. Currently, the wild population of the Amur tiger distributed in North-eastern China, which was the distribution center of the Amur tiger a century ago, was about 20, and more than 500 individuals were distributed in Russia Far East. Conservation strategies, such as prohibiting poaching, killing ungulates, cutting, have been promoted, and performed during the last 20 years. However, it is not enough unless a connection between the big population in Russia Far East and the small populations in China is properly established. The objectives of this proposal, therefore, are to project the potential habitat of the Amur tiger, exam the impacts of key environmental factors, explore its responses to future climate change, and then propose effective strategies for the conservation of the species by integrating and comparing species distribution models and population viability.

东北虎是中国东北和俄罗斯远东地区的旗舰种。近一个世纪以来，由于盗猎、猎物匮乏、生境丧失等多种原因，东北虎的种群数量剧烈下降，分布区严重萎缩，特别是处于原分布中心的中国东北地区的东北虎种群趋于严重濒危的状况，野外种群数量仅为20只左右，而俄罗斯的野外个体数不到600只。尽管随着政府和科研机构的日趋重视，采取了禁伐、禁捕、清套等一系列东北虎保护措施，东北虎种群数量略有增长，但要长期保持其种群的可持续性，尚需建立野外种群斑块间的连通和交流。本申请项目拟结合数据分析和模型模拟的技术手段，定量分析破碎化景观中东北虎种群在环境条件不变和未来气候变化情境下的潜在适宜生境、种群动态和灭绝风险；采用系统规划模型，运用景观生态学和保护生态学原理，设计东北虎保护网络，为东北虎野外种群的长期维持提供科学建议。

本申请项目拟结合数据分析和模型模拟的技术手段，定量分析破碎化景观中东北虎种群在环境条件不变和未来气候变化情境下的潜在适宜生境、种群动态和灭绝风险；采用系统规划模型，运用景观生态学和保护生态学原理，设计东北虎保护网络，为东北虎野外种群的长期维持提供科学建议。根据研究目标，项目组成员历时三年，开展了相关的数据收集、野外调研、模型模拟和网络分析等工作，完成了相应的计划，具体包括我国东北虎种群的保护现状和制约因素分析，基于现有环境条件的潜在适宜生境预测和未来种群动态和灭绝风险分析，情景模拟气候变化对东北虎潜在适宜生境、种群动态和灭绝风险的影响，以及东北虎保护重点区域的筛选和保护网络的设计。我们的研究结合了物种分布模型和种群生存力两种模型，从物种分布和种群动态和灭绝风险方面全面剖析了种群的濒危程度。项目发表论文2篇，其中相关领域主流SCI1篇，核心一篇，修改待投1篇。