尾矿库安全评价与灾害预测理论研究

China is the country that owns the largest amount of tailing reservoirs. Because of the special manufacturing processes and the disposal techniques, the engineering property and mechanical behavior of tailing materials differs largely from natural soils, and the safety factor of tailing reservoirs are generally much lower than water reservoirs, i.e. tailing reservoirs are more vulnerable to damage and failure. In this study, multi-scale physical model tests will be conducted to reveal the micro-structure of tailing materials so as to propose a suitable testing method that considering the special microscopic behavior. The spatial and temporal variation of the physical and mechanical properties of tailing materials within reservoirs will also be studied to lay a reliable foundation for a zoning method. In addition, Series of laboratory experiments will be performed, based on which a constitutive model that reflecting the static and dynamic behavior of tailing materials will be established. The constitutive model will be incorporated into the analytical framework for tailing dams that considering the large deformation consolidation and nonlinear progressive failure processes. Anther important aspect in this study is the long-term evolution and failure mechanism of the anti-seepage and drainage systems in tailing dams, as well as the evaluation method for their long-term function and failure behavior. Centrifuge model tests will also be conducted to investigate the breach mechanism of tailing dams triggered by different factors, and the corresponding mathematical models will be proposed to predict the breaching processes and the enlargement of disaster area. The expected results achieved in this study will provide a theoretical and practical support in improving the prediction and precaution of disaster and safety management for tailing reservoirs.

我国是世界上尾矿库数量最多的国家，由于尾矿料特殊的加工过程和排放方式，其工程力学特性与天然土体相比更为复杂，且尾矿库的安全性普遍较低，出险与溃坝风险远高于水库。本项目拟通过不同尺度的物理模型试验研究与尾矿料微观结构与组构成分相适应的物理力学性质试验方法；揭示尾矿库内沉积尾矿料物理力学特性时空变异规律，提出相应的物理力学性质概化分区方法。研究反映尾矿料静动力应力应变特性的弹塑性本构模型，建立尾矿库多相多场耦合的大变形固结理论与静动力非线性渐进破坏计算分析理论，构建尾矿库全寿命周期安全评价理论与方法体系。研究尾矿库防渗与排渗系统服役性能演化规律与失效机制，提出尾矿库防渗和排渗系统长期服役性能与灾害评估方法。揭示尾矿库不同致灾因子下的溃坝机理，提出科学预测其溃坝与致灾过程的模拟理论和评价方法。拟通过本项目研究，为提升我国尾矿库的灾变预测预警与安全管理水平提供科学理论与关键技术支持。

围绕提升我国尾矿库安全评价与灾害预测理论水平，开展了较为系统的研究工作，形成了较完善的尾矿库安全评价方法和灾害预测技术。主要创新成果如下：.（1）提出了与尾矿料微观结构与组构成分相适应的物理力学性质试验方法，揭示了尾矿库内沉积尾矿料物理力学特性时空变化规律，提出了尾矿库内沉积尾矿料的物理力学性质概化分区方法；开展了尾矿浆体流变试验，分析了颗粒组成和浓度对尾矿浆体流变特性的影响。.（2）在广义塑性理论框架下提出了统一模拟尾矿料加载变形特性、流变特性及其耦合效应的弹塑性本构模型及参数确定方法；针对尾矿库内沉积尾矿料分布不均匀性、变异性大等特点，结合随机场理论和随机有限元法，研究了尾矿库稳定性和典型工程的可靠度。.（3）开展了尾矿库排渗系统在应力场、渗流场以及沉积尾矿料大变形耦合条件下的淤堵、变形错位、倒坍等破坏模式的物理模型试验，揭示了尾矿库排渗系统服役性能演化规律及其失效机理。.（4）建立了尾矿库溃坝离心模型试验相关物理量相似准则，开展了尾矿库渗透破坏、水流漫顶以及浸润线抬高等工况下的溃坝离心模型试验，揭示了尾矿库的溃坝机理；开展了尾矿库溃坝下泄物演进水槽模型试验，研究了尾矿料浆下泄运动与堆积过程，以及尾矿料粒径组成、浓度、坡度等因素对堆积体几何特征的影响。.（5）基于尾矿库溃坝机理，考虑溃坝过程中的流固耦合作用，提出了真实反映不同致灾因子作用下的尾矿库溃坝简化和精细化数学模型、尾矿库溃坝下泄物堆积数学模型，开发了相应的计算机软件。.（6）提出了尾矿库安全隐患快速精确识别方法，构建了尾矿库安全评价指标体系；建立了尾矿库全寿命周期安全评价与灾害预测方法，并应用于襄汾塔儿山尾矿库和巴西Feijão矿区1号尾矿库溃坝反演分析，以及在役和新建尾矿库的安全评价和灾害预警预测。.上述成果为新建尾矿库的选址、设计、运营管理，已建尾矿库的安全评价和灾害预测与防控提供了科学理论与关键技术支撑。