贸易自由化对国有企业杠杆率的影响研究

Structural deleveraging is a basic measure to prevent and resolve the major risks. The government proposes to reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises actively and steadily by means of marketization and legalization, especially the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as a top priority. Existing studies mainly focus on the characteristics of the leverage ratio, the formation reasons for high leverage, the impacts of high leverage on economic development and enterprises behavior, as well as on the deleveraging paths from the perspectives of technological innovation, financial friction and monetary policies. There is no literature on examining the deleveraging of SOEs alone or exploring the possible paths of deleveraging from the perspective of marketization. The project intends to explore the issue of the SOEs deleveraging from the marketization perspective of trade liberalization. Firstly, analyzing the impacts and micro-mechanisms of trade liberalization on the leverage ratio of enterprises based on the heterogeneous enterprise model with credit constraints. On the basis, using Chinese SOE-level panel data and industrial tariffs data provided by the WTO and the WITS website over the period 1998-2013, to verify the impacts and mechanisms of trade liberalization on the leverage ratio of SOEs by adopting a DID model and a Mediated Effect model, and further investigate heterogeneity effects of trade liberalization on different samples of SOEs; It aims to put forward some useful policy advices for the government to push forward the deleveraging positively and deepen the reform of SOEs.

结构性去杠杆是打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战要坚持的基本思路。政府提出要以市场化、法治化方式积极稳妥降低企业杠杆率，尤其是要把国有企业降杠杆作为重中之重。现有研究主要关注杠杆率的特征事实与高杠杆形成原因、高杠杆对经济发展及企业行为的影响，以及从技术创新、金融摩擦、货币政策等视角探讨去杠杆的思路。尚未有研究单独考察国有企业去杠杆问题以及从市场化视角探讨企业去杠杆的可能路径。本课题拟从贸易自由化这一市场化视角探讨国有企业去杠杆问题。基于信贷约束的异质企业模型分析贸易自由化对企业杠杆率的影响及作用机制；在此基础上，运用1997-2013年中国工业企业数据及WTO、WITS网站提供的行业关税数据，采用双重差分与中介效应模型，验证贸易自由化对国有企业杠杆率的影响与作用机制，并进一步考察贸易自由化对不同国有企业样本的异质效应。旨在为政府稳妥推进去杠杆及深化国有企业改革提出有益的政策建议。

中国宏观经济去杠杆的关键在于企业去杠杆，而企业去杠杆的重中之重在于国有企业去杠杆。国有企业杠杆率高企不下成为制约中国经济高质量发展的重要问题，政府强调要以市场化、法治化方式积极稳妥降低企业杠杆率。本项目从贸易自由化这一市场化角度出发探讨国有企业去杠杆问题，研究工作主要分四步进行：首先，刻画国有企业杠杆率的特征事实；其次，基于理论模型分析贸易自由化影响企业杠杆率的机制；再者，基于1997-2013年中国工业企业数据及WTO、WITS网站的行业进口关税数据，采用双重差分模型与中介效应模型，检验贸易自由化对国有企业杠杆率的影响及作用机制；最后，结合研究结论提出相应的政策建议。本项目研究发现，国有企业杠杆率明显高于非国有企业杠杆率。贸易自由化显著推动了国有企业去杠杆，一方面迫使高杠杆国有企业退出市场，另一方面提高在位国有企业利润率以降低其对外援融资的需求，进而降低在位国有企业的杠杆率。本课题有如下政策启示，政府应更多的采用市场化手段积极稳妥推进企业去杠杆，进一步扩大贸易开放程度，推动“以开放促改革、促发展”的发展战略。