流域供水-发电-环境复杂关联系统弹性理论与经验分析

Runoff of Southwest China river basins feeds water supply, hydropower and environment in the context of typical complex interdependent systems. Existing studies mostly conduct case-by-case analysis through numerical modelling. The findings of those studies usually lack generality, and it is difficulty to apply those to other cases. This project proposes a theoretical framework to conduct generic analysis and meanwhile to use empirical analysis to complement the theoretical work. The key innovations include: (1) Coupling the mechanism analysis, empirical data, the data mining and other methods to determine the state transition equations and the decision equations of the water -hydropower-environment nexus, so as to form a complete mathematical description of the complex system. (2) Definitions of interdependencies and resiliency for the complex interdependent system will be provided, following the generic system analysis. And then a piecewise linear solution method to solve the resilience of the nonlinear system is proposed, based on which, the impact of interdependencies between different subsystems on resiliency of the coupled complex system are quantified, the development thresholds of the watersheds and the fragile subsystems are identified. This project will fill the gaps in the theoretical analysis for complex systems, and prompt the level of theoretical analysis and innovation of China's water resources development and management.

对于西南河流源区而言，径流利用涉及供水、发电、环境多个系统，是一个典型的复杂关联系统分析问题。类似的复杂系统研究多以数值模拟方法为主，基于某个实例挖掘其中的关键规律。然而，这种规律的挖掘缺乏普适性，无法证实结果的科学性，难以推广。本研究区别于传统的数值模拟方法，拟从一般性系统分析的角度描述耦合系统的基本特征，构建通用的系统理论分析框架，得到具有推广性的分析结论，在逻辑上验证径流利用中的关键问题。主要创新点：（1）构建基于机理分析、经验数据、数据挖掘等多种方法相融合的耦合系统状态变量转移方程与系统决策方程，实现复杂系统数学表征；（2）定义耦合系统关联性、弹性的量化指标，提出复杂非线性系统的弹性分段线性求解方法，定量解析关联性对弹性的影响规律，挖掘流域开发阈值，识别脆弱子系统。该项目将填补复杂系统研究中理论分析模型这一空白，提升我国在流域水资源开发管理领域的理论分析水平与创新能力。

随着近年流域水资源综合开发利用的需求不断增加，水资源管理趋向多系统、多目标、多维度的发展方向。本项目以供水-发电-环境复杂关联系统为研究对象，从理论和实践两个层次分析供水-发电-环境复杂关联系统面临关键问题；构建系统可靠性-弹性-脆弱性的多属性指标体系，挖掘其与外部环境多元要素间的响应关系；构建基于可视化的复杂系统多目标分析与决策方法；基于可视化结果提出系统关联关系量化方法，并将其在典型流域中应用。创新成果包括：1）从实践层面剖析了流域在发电、供水、环境等方面面临的关键问题及调度矛盾，在理论层面综述了供水-发电-环境复杂耦合系统的现有研究进展及存在问题。2）基于系统弹性理论，梳理了复杂耦合系统的可靠性、回弹性、脆弱性3类属性的多种定义，定量解析了系统可靠性、回弹性、脆弱性对外部多元要素变化的敏感程度，为系统动态演进规律分析与开发阈值评估提供重要依据。3）提出了基于可视化分析方法的复杂耦合系统内关联关系分析与决策方法，量化了复杂耦合系统关联性，建立了多目标竞争关系量化指标，实现了供水-发电-环境各子系统之间竞争程度的统一量化。项目为供水-发电-环境复杂耦合系统的弹性理论应用及关联关系分析提供科学依据，提升我国在流域水资源开发管理领域的理论分析水平与创新能力。累计发表论文17篇，均被SCI/EI检索，其中J.Clean.Prod.2篇，WR1篇，Sci.Total Environ.2篇，JWRPM3篇，JH1篇，WARM1篇。