变化环境下不同气候区河川径流变化归因定量识别研究

The observed runoffs in most of major rivers in China have been detected decreasing significantly, causing major stresses on existing water resources management. Global warming and rapid growth of social economic have exacerbated this stresses. It is of significance to quantitatively identify attribution of runoff variation for future sustainable development of water resources and effective management. .Taking climatically different typical catchments as study areas, the overall objectives of the project are to establish an integrated quantitatively identification approach for attribution analysis of runoff variation due to environmental change, systematically assess impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff for climatically different catchments, and provide scientific supports for sustainable utilization of water resources for climatically different catchments. The specific research targets of the project are as follows: .(1) To analyze evolution law of observed runoff for climatically different catchment under changing environment; .(2) To select and calibrate suitable hydrological models for study areas, and validate the effective of this model; .(3) To propose detection method of human-disturbed epoch using hydrological simulation approach; .(4) To establish an integrated quantitatively identification approach for attribution analysis of runoff variation due to environmental change; .(5) To assess individual impact of climate change and human activities on runoff for climatically different catchments, reveal relationships between climate change, human activities, and runoff change; .(6)To analyze the future water resources of typical catchments under changing environment, including future climate change and human activities.

在全球变暖背景下，随着社会经济的快速发展，中国的水问题日趋突出。科学认识江河径流变化成因，对实现变化环境下流域水资源的有效管理和可持续开发利用等方面具有重要意义。拟以不同气候区的典型流域为研究对象，系统分析变化环境下流域的水资源演变规律；通过遴选适合于研究流域的水文模型，构建基于流域水文模拟技术的流域天然时期的识别方法，完善变化环境下河川径流变化归因定量识别技术体系，系统分析不同气候区典型流域河川径流变化归因；通过人类活动指标的定量化，揭示气候变化、人类活动与径流变化的相互关系；综合给出研究流域未来变化环境下的河川径流变化趋势。研究成果可为变化环境下区域水资源综合评价及流域治理开发提供理论依据。

科学认识江河径流变化成因，对实现变化环境下流域水资源的有效管理和可持续开发利用等方面具有重要意义。本项目基于不同下垫面条件和不同降雨条件下的径流强化观测试验，系统揭示了不同驱动要素对流域水文循环的驱动机制；以不同气候区的8个典型流域为研究对象，系统分析了变化环境下流域的河川径流演变规律；提出了基于水文模拟的实测径流量系列天然时期识别方法，构建了气候变化和人类活动对河川径流量影响归因定量识别技术体系，科学解析了强人类活动影响流域河川径流变化归因；结合未来不同气候变化情景和人类活动状况，预估了不同气候区未来20-30年水资源演变趋势。结果表明，北方干旱区河川径流呈现显著性减少趋势，其他区域河川径流呈现或增加或减少的非显著性变化；人类活动复杂了区域水文循环过程，是北方干旱地区河川径流锐减的主要原因，气候变化引起的绝对径流减少量具有增大趋势。未来气温持续升高，北方干旱区和西部高寒区降水可能略有增多，受气候变化的综合影响，2021-2050年，不同气候区水资源总体趋于减少，气候变化为水资源利用与管理带来严峻挑战。研究成果不仅丰富了变化环境下水文科学理论技术体系，促进气候、水文等多学科的发展，而且为流域管理规划提供了科学依据。.结合项目研究成果发表学术论文80 篇，其中SCI源刊论文27篇；出版学术专（译）著3部，获国家发明专利4项、实用新型专利2项、软件著作权8项，举办大型国际学术会议2次，受邀做国际学术大会主旨报告20余次；培养博士后和硕博士研究生15名；获国家科学技术进步二等奖1项，省部级奖2项。项目研究团队入选2015年度科技部重点领域科技创新团队，团队骨干成员12人次获省部级以上人才称号或奖励，其中，国家级人才奖励8人次（国家高层次人才特殊支持计划“万人计划”等）。