自然灾害冲击下的农产品价格波动：影响规模及其传导机制

Natural disasters can often cause fluctuations in prices of agricultural products. Meanwhile, the price of agricultural products is a key components for inflation index. Keeping a stable price level for agricultural products has been the gain of many governments for disaster management. How will natural disasters affect the retail price of agricultural products? What are the potential channels for natural disasters affecting prices and what is the implications on welfare impacts for the society? This project aims to answer these questions by focusing on several specific types of natural disasters: flooding, droughts, typhoons and earthquakes. Using a detailed price dataset including price information between 1989-2012, we merge it with the complete disaster record and explore not only the average impacts of disasters on prices of agricultural products, but also the main mechanisms for disasters affecting price of agricultural products. Methods used in the analysis include GIS, dynamic panel and spatial econometric models. This study helps to understand the extend and boundaries for risk transmission in the economic system. This study contributes to the vast group of literature on economic impacts of natural disasters and price volatility. It also provides potential policy implications for disaster management in China.

农产品价格容易受到外生性自然灾害的冲击。农产品价格波动是影响整个经济通货膨胀率的重要一环。因此，政府也将维持灾后物价稳定列为灾害管理的重要目标。在自然灾害发生时，农产品价格会怎么变化？灾害通过哪些机制影响农产品价格，进而如何影响社会福利？本课题通过构建详细的灾害指标，分析几类自然灾害：洪涝、干旱、地震、台风在1989-2012年间对我国农产品零售价格的影响规模。我们重点利用产品价格中的产品属性、空间分布信息，使用地理信息分析、动态面板和空间计量方法，探索灾害风险对价格影响在产品和空间两个维度上的体现。以了解风险在经济系统中的扩散的范围和边界,并结合居民消费调查数据评估灾害对社会福利的影响。本研究对灾害经济影响、市场价格决定的文献有理论贡献，对完善我国政府灾害管理体系有政策指导意义。

在农产品供应链背景下，自然灾害或者自然事件等外生性风险对经济的影响有很强的空间和时间动态扩散特征。外生性风险可以通过产品供应链条扩散到其他产品、产业、区域。本课题从农产品出发，分析自然灾害风险对农产品市场的影响。一方面，农产品因为其对自然要素的依赖，容易受到外生性自然灾害的冲击；另一方面，农产品价格波动是影响整个经济通货膨胀率的重要一环。在自然灾害发生时，农产品市场的供给、需求各方会发生什么变化？自然灾害通过哪些机制影响农产品价格，进而如何影响社会福利？本研究对灾害经济影响、市场价格决定的文献有理论贡献，对完善我国政府灾害管理体系有政策指导意义。