基于空间多标准分析的我国海水养殖空间布局优化决策：方法及应用

Currently the decision of the spatial layout of mariculture in China is usually made based on subjective opinions rather than scientific standards, not to mention the problem of disorder and scatter subjects. To avoid errors while optimizing, a systematic and internationally standard decision making methodology is needed. Based on the SMCA, a standard method of internationally marine spatial planning, this study aims to form a decision making methodology for the spatial layout optimization of mariculture, by calculating the optimizing standards of spatial layout as basis of decision making, while improving, filtering and combining the specific methods in the following steps, building a database, establishing a multi-criteria indicator system, calculating weights, deciding goals, setting options and optimal selecting. By integrating the methodology and methods mentioned above, a support system can be built to help making decisions on spatial layout optimization of mariculture in China. By the means of this support system, the methodology is applied in both fish and mollusk layout in Qingdao, as well as shellfish and crustacean’s layout in Yantai. By assessing, ordering and simulating all the options under different samples, a set of relatively optimal options can be decided. By employing the method of Decision Tree, the finally optimal solution to the spatial layout of mariculture in areas mentioned above can be decided, and the methodology would be generalized to other coastal areas in China for spatial layout optimization of mariculture.

目前，我国海水养殖空间布局优化决策存在主观性强、科学依据缺失、程序混乱等问题，亟需一套符合国际规范、系统有序的决策方法。本课题基于国际海洋空间规划通用的空间多标准分析（SMCA）框架，从产量、品种结构、用海比例和布局次序等四个层面确立决策方法的标准依据，并对SMCA 框架中“数据库建立、多标准指标体系构建、权重计算、优化目标确定、备选方案设定和优选决策”的具体方法进行重新筛选与改进，形成一套适合我国的“海水养殖空间布局优化决策方法”；通过系统集成，构建“海水养殖空间布局优化决策支持系统”；以该系统为平台，对青岛西海岸鱼类及软体类（深海）、烟台莱州湾贝类及甲壳类（近海）养殖布局优化的决策进行示范应用：选取不同决策参与样本生成优化方案集合，运用决策树最终确定典型海域布局优化的最优方案，并推广应用于我国其他沿海地区海水养殖空间布局优化。

目前，我国海水养殖空间布局优化决策存在主观性强、科学依据缺失、程序混乱等问题，亟需一套符合国际规范、系统有序的决策方法。本课题基于国际海洋空间规划通用的空间多标准分析（SMCA）框架，从产量、品种结构、用海比例和布局次序等四个层面确立决策方法的标准依据，并对SMCA 框架中“数据库建立、多标准指标体系构建、权重计算、优化目标确定、备选方案设定和优选决策”的具体方法进行重新筛选与改进，形成一套适合我国的“海水养殖空间布局优化决策方法”；通过系统集成，构建“海水养殖空间布局优化决策支持系统”；以该系统为平台，对青岛西海岸鱼类及软体类（深海）、烟台莱州湾贝类及甲壳类（近海）养殖布局优化的决策进行示范应用：选取不同决策参与样本生成优化方案集合，运用决策树最终确定典型海域布局优化的最优方案，并推广应用于我国其他沿海地区海水养殖空间布局优化。结果显示，广东省的海水养殖空间布局优化决策方案为：广东省应该依次发展海参、贝类、海带、鱼类；辽宁省的海水养殖空间布局优化决策方案为：辽宁省应该依次发展海参、贝类、鱼类、海带；浙江省的海水养殖空间布局优化决策方案为：浙江省应该依次发展鱼类、贝类、海参、海带；山东省的海水养殖空间布局优化决策方案为：山东省应该依次发展海参、鱼类、贝类、海带。广东省经济发达，对高端营养品海参的需求量大，因此应将海参作为优势养殖对象。辽宁省能够发挥其自然环境的独特性，养殖高品质的海参。浙江省的决策方案符合其海水养殖经济条件和自然条件分布均衡的实际情况。山东省一方面纬度较浙江和广州高，海域环境更适合养殖海参；另一方面劳动力丰富，相对于自然环境脆弱的辽宁省具备扩大海参养殖规模的条件。