中国转基因玉米商业化市场前景及其经济影响研究

Corn is a staple crop in China, but its production is inefficient. To insure and increase corn production, the government relies heavily on price support policy, which caused domestic corn price much higher than that of the world market. Higher price has caused a series problems: a large number of corn import, increasing production costs to the downstream agribusinesses, and excessive pollution etc. Limited natural resources and abnormal climate change have made corn production even more difficult. ..GM crops, which are characterized as herbicide tolerant, insect resistant and drought tolerant, may be a potential and practical solution to resolve issues of food security, industry safety and to cope with the uncertain energy supply. As a large country, China’s genetically modified food market cannot be dominated by foreign products. So it’s valuable for government control over GM corn commercialization in China to forecast its market trend and economic impacts...The project focuses on two main aspects of GM corn if it were commercialized: Firstly, using experimental economic methods to feel out consumers’ attitudes and willingness to pay for GM corn by gradually disclosing its quality information, and to analyze the potential market trend for GM corn commercializing in China. Secondly, using GTAP model to simulate and analyze GM corn commercialization’s economic impact on food security, food price, industry safety, and energy safety in a systematically and scientific way...Based on the research, we would outline policy implications for GM corn commercialization in China.

中国玉米种植广、产量大、用途多、影响深，但其生产缺乏效率。由于依靠价格支持保丰收，使得国内玉米价格远高于国际市场，进而导致了一系列问题：玉米进口量增加，下游产业成本上升，甚至畜产品也面临大量进口的威胁，以及环境污染问题。面对水土资源约束与气候异常，中国玉米增产难以持续、粮食安全受到挑战、相关产业面临威胁，也难以应对不确定的世界能源供给。转基因技术由于具有抗病、抗虫、抗旱等特点，可能成为解决上述问题的现实选择。为此前瞻性地研究中国转基因玉米商业化的市场前景与经济影响，对政府把控转基因玉米商业化具有重要的决策参考价值。..本课题基于上述国情和现实，一方面运用实验经济学方法，研究信息不断披露条件下消费者对转基因玉米的态度和支付意愿，结合局部均衡分析，预估转基因玉米在中国商业化的市场前景；另一方面借助GTAP模型，分析、评估转基因玉米商业化对我国粮食安全、粮食价格、产业安全以及能源安全的经济影响。

本课题针对中国转基因玉米商业化的前景，从微观和宏观两个层面展开研究：. （1）微观层面首先将转基因产品分为三类：搜寻型转基因产品、经验型转基因产品和信任型转基因产品，采用消费者问卷调查和经济学实验的方法，研究了转基因产品分类的合理性并评估消费者支付意愿，结果显示三类转基因品区分明显，绝大多数受访者认为转基因的关键问题在于技术安全性无法得到证实，对健康具有潜在危害，但就食品安全问题的横向比较结果来看，消费者对转基因抵触程度不高；转基因信息披露为经验品和信任品带来额外的16.2%和7.23%的折价；而非转基因信息的披露会使得支付意愿提高6.19%，非转基因信息披露为经验品和信任品带来额外的9.75%和3.67%的溢价，与原始假设不同的是，消费者对经验品的敏感度高于信任品。. （2）宏观层面基于微观研究的基础，设计了三种政策情景，通过CGE模型进行实证研究，分析评估了中国农业政策改变下所造成的宏观经济产业直接与间接影响效果，以及国际贸易情况的相应变化。结果显示，我国取消玉米临储政策（情景1）对于实际GDP是正面影响，并且能使国内资源更有效分配与利用，也让玉米供需由市场规律决定；国家发展转基因玉米种植（情景2），会带动经济增长；在取消临储政策之后发展转基因种植的情况（情景3）下，对整体经济、产业资源利用以及粮食安全有更大的正面影响。