企业产品市场的不确定性分析与企业经营的优化策略研究

The research contents of “Uncertainty Analysis of Product Markets and Study of Optimization Management Strategy for Enterprises” include:Market subdivision and target market choice, product life cycle identification, product sales status forecast, the influence of product choice behavior of customer on enterprises decision ,.product assemblage optimization strategy, cost optimization control, price strategy.The main research results are as follows:Based on analyzing the uncertainty in market, we discuss the methods of market egmenting,targeting and positioning, and establish effective production trategy, price strategy and marketing.strategy We give quantative methods and a fuzzy identification model on product life cycle , use computer simulation technology to give the simulation model.Analyzing the factors on affecting marketing outstanding achievements and environment, we use.the sales volume matrix and market share matrix to describe the sales status. In regard to the.forecast purpose in sales volume and the complexity of forecast mechanism, we set up a model on forecasting market share based on TSA-BP ANN, a time series model, a dynamic fuzzy evaluation model on sales status of enterprise product, the program and method of forecast on sales prospect.of enterprise new product. Analyzing the demand characteristic, buying motive and consuming mind of customers, we discuss the influence on product line decision and profit zone selection based on the uncertainty of customer choice behavior.We give the methods of product assemblage decision, discrete choice model of enterprise product.line decision based on customer choice, which provide a set of effective theories and methods for enterprise product line decision .We analyze the structure of activity-based cost associating actual enterprise and give a useful method of activity-based cost control using activity-based cost theory. On the other hand, we set.up the optimization model of product cost structure based on value chain. Some available theories and methods are supplied for cost control and operation decision of enterprises.Product price strategy of assorting profit return with competitive capability is given.according to product life cycle and competitive condition. Dynamic optimization pricing model is.built by using operational research and cost analyzing method.The research results give some significant decision theories and methods to the enterprise,.including understanding the uncertainty of product market, selecting the target market, product positioning, identifying product life cycle, forecasting the sales volume of product, evaluating product sales status, knowing demand characteristics of customers, deciding the product.assemblage, cost control .

从企业角度出发，将研究内容分为企业外部产品市场不确定性分析和企业内部优化经营策略两部分展开研究。重点建立可以处理不确定性因素、用于分析预测产品市场特性的数量、模拟模型和企业内部优化经营决策的数量、模拟模型和方法。为我国企业提供一套研究产品市场特性、根据市场动态变化的需求信息作出动态优化经营策略的理论和方法。.