考虑脆弱性指标的电力系统差异化规划理论与方法

For the purpose of defending serious disasters, it is necessary to consider the future grid security during planning from the macroscopic view. Therefore, the vulnerability should be considered in the process of power system planning. The differential planning is the foundation of power system security defense system，by focusing on planning and construction of high-standard power grid for key vulnerable nodes and anti-disaster special loads in order to strengthen the overall network. Detailed contents are as follows: power system planning method considering vulnerability, vulnerability assessment of planning project, identification and prediction of anti-disaster special loads and their differential planning for power supply, the key vulnerability nodes identification and their differential planning for power supply, comprehensive backbone network differential planning for important nodes amongst above two kinds of nodes, the relationship between high-standard power grid structure and security of overall network through different planning projects for power supply of different kinds of nodes.The expected results of this project will not only develop self-healing technologies of smart grid, but also have important application value for improving the anti-disaster capacity for defending extreme disaster, and for promoting smart grid planning and construction.

为提高防御和应对重大灾害的能力，从宏观规划角度考虑未来电网的安全，将脆弱性指标体现在电网规划中,通过重点规划建设脆弱性关键节点和抗灾型特殊负荷保供电的高标准网络，实现差异化规划，是构建电力系统安全防御体系的基础。具体内容包括：考虑脆弱性指标的电力系统规划方法研究、规划方案的脆弱性评估、特殊负荷认定与预测及其保供电的差异化规划方法、脆弱性关键节点识别及其保供电的差异化规划、综合考虑特殊负荷和脆弱性关键节点的重要节点保供电差异化规划研究，通过不同保供电对象的规划方案对比分析的高标准网络拓扑结构与整体电网安全的关系研究。本项目的研究成果不仅能丰富智能电网自愈理论，而且对电力系统提高容灾抗灾能力，促进智能电网的规划和建设具有应用价值。

项目为提高电网防灾抗灾能力进行了研究，包括考虑电网脆弱性指标的规划方法研究、特殊负荷保供电的差异化规划方法研究、脆弱性关键节点保供电的差异化规划方法研究以及综合考虑特殊节点和脆弱性节点保供电的差异化规划方法研究。项目通过建立电力系统的连锁故障交互模型、基于元胞自动机的电网隐性故障传播模型和耦合的信息物理网络连锁故障的模型，得到了电网脆弱性节点和线路，有助于电力系统安全稳定运行。在特殊负荷保供电的差异化规划方法研究方面，建立了基于特殊负荷保供电的电网差异化规划模型和配电系统抗灾差异化规划模型。项目考虑新能源波动性及不确定性，分别建立了不确定信息下损失负荷区间模型的脆弱元件区间排序方法和不确定信息下基于区间电气介数的脆弱性节点和线路排序方法；通过考虑源荷波动的电网故障模型研究，建立了考虑电网脆弱性的波动性新能源电源的优化配置方案。项目建立了基于PageRank算法的特殊节点和脆弱性节点保供电的核心骨干网架差异化优化规划模型；并通过互联电网大停电事故分形特征研究得出子区域电网与互联大电网拓扑之间的关系，能为简化复杂大电网连锁故障分析模型打下基础。本项目的研究成果不仅能丰富智能电网自愈理论，而且对电力系统提高容灾抗灾能力，促进智能电网的规划和建设具有应用价值。研究成果方面，项目共发表论文5篇，其中包括SCI期刊论文2篇、EI收录论文2篇。