河流动力学水沙数值模拟多目标评价体系研究及应用

River dynamics of water and sediment study of numerical evaluation is an important means to further study on the objective phenomenon and regularity of water and sediment movement.The Feedback Effect of water and sediment basic theories and predicted reliability of water and sediment development trend in river are oppugned due to the lack of evaluation index system which is criteria measurable, so that the comprehensive properties of simulation results can hardly be objectively measured.Therefore, the aim of this study is to construct the first water and sediment numerical simulation of multi-objective evaluation system in the industry. The classic experiment data will be selected, as well as that of scenario cases of integrating model of observed sediment-laden river data.Transport of water and sediment and its associated process as single index are based on modeling principles and hydrological Data.Water and sediment numerical simulation and quantization evaluation system oriented to WEB is based on non-dimension solutions of Systems Engineering, single index weight determining method and synthetic model.The present situation that numerical simulations judged by subject feeling will by changed via this study. The understanding of sediment basic theories and mathematic model theories will be deepened, so that the development of numerical simulation standardization in the water conservancy industry will be promoted.

河流动力学水沙数值模拟是深入研究水沙运动客观现象及规律的重要手段，由于数学模型缺乏标准可量化的评价指标体系，造成模拟结果的综合性能无法客观衡量，致使模型对水沙基本理论反馈作用和对河道水沙发展趋势预测可靠性受到质疑。因此本研究旨在构建首个行业规范的水沙数值模拟多目标可量化评价体系，甄选经典实验室数据和多沙河流实测原型资料集成模型测试案例题库；基于建模原理和水文观测数据遴选表征水沙输移及其伴生过程作为模型评估单项指标；借助系统工程学研究单项指标无量纲方法、单项赋权及合成模型，实现面向WEB的水沙数值模拟量化评价系统，改变我国目前数值模型评价以人为主观感觉为主导的现状，有利于深化对泥沙基本理论和数学模型理论的认识，促进水利行业数值模拟标准、规范化发展。

本研究针对河流动力学多目标评价中的科学问题，基于水沙数值模拟、评价分析、水利信息化等多学科交叉，利用数值模拟仿真技术、多源数据融合技术、量化评价建模技术、分布式信息集成技术。研究提出了黄河水沙数学模型评价功能指标和性能指标体系，建立了多层次多指标耦合评价方法，构建了完备的模型评价案例库，研发了分布式架构的模型评价平台，开展了黄河河道水沙演进模型评价示范。. 取得创新成果包括:. a)基于多源数据融合方法，收集和遴选领域内普遍认可的基准解数据和完备的、有代表性的实验室数据及原型数据，通过聚类分析和判别分析基于DDL语言构建面向模型评测的元数据，围绕评价标准，构建了完备的模型评价案例库。. b)在广泛科学调研及系统分析基础上，提出了模型评价单项指标量化参数，创新建立了多层次多指标耦合评价方法，形成了面向多用户的模型评价技术标准。. c)研发了复杂边界多沙河流多空间层次水沙演进模型的分布式架构评测平台，模型计算和结果封装上传流程与专家模型评审流程物理逻辑分离，为科学评价水沙模型提供了公平、公正、公开的环境。. 项目在结合理论研究和当前水文测验成果的基础上，建立行业首个河流动力学水沙数值模型标准评价环境体系，改变目前数值模型评价以人为主观感觉为主导的现状，进而促进水利科学领域数值模拟的标准化和规范化。并在评价指标分类上结合理论研究和当前水文测验成果，遴选出能够表征水沙输移及其伴生过程的关键参数，根据研究对象、模型维度和模型功能而各有侧重，以便判别数值模型计算结果的合理性与准确性。误差分析定量方法根据不同的单项指标，基于选取模式的误差域（值）和对水沙条件的敏感性定制不同的误差量化评定准则，更能真实地反映出时态数据间的接近程度，提供与误差相关的系统动态信息。