昆明准静止锋的生成机制研究

Kunming quasi-stationary front(KQSF) is one of the vital weather systems in Yunnan-Guizhou plateau during winter and spring. There were so many studies concentrated on a few specific front processes, but the systematically genesic mechanism of KQSF was rarely mentioned. This research intends to adopt the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis data with full resolution to develop a KQSF index according to the definition of the frontogenetical function, then obtain a time series of the process of KQSF during winter and spring from 1980 to 2011. This time series will be calibrated with regular observations data in MICAPS and cloud cover data; Furthere more, the kinetic analysis method is used to classify these processes and the kinetic genesic mechanism of KQSF is explored. At the same time, the atmospheric circulation conditions conducive to the different types of KQSF are also compounded. Based on these, several numerical experiments are designed to verify the genesic mechanism and atmospheric circulation conditions of KQSF. This research is significant for better understanding the genesic mechanism of the KQSF，and the results could improve the weather forecasts and climate predictions of the Southwest，and provide a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation.

昆明准静止锋是冬春季云贵高原重要的天气系统，以往的研究主要集中于对静止锋个例的分析，而对其生成机制尚缺乏系统性的认识。本项目拟采用ECMWF提供的高分辨率Interim再分析资料，根据锋生函数的意义，定义昆明准静止锋指数，以获得1980年以来昆明准静止锋过程的时间序列资料，并采用MICAPS常规观测资料和总云量资料对其进行订正；进一步利用动力学分析方法对历次准静止锋过程进行分类，并揭示各类准静止锋生成的动力学机制；同时对不同类型准静止锋过程进行合成分析，获取利于锋生的大气环流状况；在此基础上，设计不同的数值试验，对昆明准静止锋的生成机制及大气环流状况进行验证。本项目的开展对深入理解昆明准静止锋生成机制具有重要意义，研究结果可提高西南地区天气气候预报和预测水平，为防灾减灾提供决策参考。