阿尼玛卿山地区跃动冰川近期表面变化监测研究

The surging glacier study has becoming more and more popular among international glaciological communities during recent years, due to the emergences of large amounts of glacier surging related natural hazards. However, a lot of aspects of surging glacier study are totally absent in Chinese glaciological research. The Anyemaqen Mountain, which is just known to the applicant recently with its concertration of surging glaciers, frequently aroused glacier hazards, and active surge developments of two glaciers, is an ideal place to study surging glacier. The proposed project take the two key paramenters of surging glaciers on Anyemaqen Mountain, i.e. the surface elevation and surface moving velocity, and their changes, as the main objects. It will also give further attention to the active Weigeledangxiong and Halong Glacier, and take them as the key field monitoring glaciers. The primary objective of this project is to collect the important data about the change processes of surface features of these surging glaciers, and to prepare the basic input data for the modeling study of glacier surges in this region in the near future. The two main techniques in this project are field differential GPS measurments, and in-room remote sensing methods. More analyses will also be performed on the data collected, with reference to the results from former researchers about the developments of surface features on surging glacier during their entire evolution of surge cicle. These analyses include the regularities of the developments of suring glaciers in the study region, the current developing stage of each glacier in their surge cicle, and the potential change trend in the near future.

随着近年来冰川跃动相关灾害的不断涌现，对跃动冰川的研究正逐渐成为国际冰川学研究的热点，但我国在跃动冰川研究领域还存在很多空白。阿尼玛卿山地区跃动冰川分布集中，相关冰川灾害频繁发生，同时部分跃动冰川已处于活跃期，是开展跃动冰川研究的理想场地。拟申请项目以阿尼玛卿山地区跃动冰川的表面高程和运动速度两个关键特征参数在近期的发展变化为主要研究对象，并以东北坡唯格勒当雄和哈龙两条处于跃动活跃期冰川的变化为监测重点，综合应用野外差分GPS测量和室内遥感反演相结合的研究方法,采集冰川表面高程和运动速度两个跃动冰川发展变化的关键表面过程数据,为下一步开展该地区冰川跃动模拟研究提供基础数据。同时，以所采集的冰川跃动过程数据为基础，结合前人关于跃动冰川表面发展变化过程的研究成果，分析该地区各条跃动冰川的演化规律以及目前所处的演化阶段，并进行初步的变化预测。

在气候变暖的背景下，全球大多数冰川处于持续退缩的状态。然而，跃动型冰川对气候变化却表现出不同的响应特征，即会发生周期性的前进或扩张。部分跃动冰川还因灾难性的前进造成了下游生态和工程设施的损坏，或是堵塞河道形成堰塞湖并最终形成溃决洪水灾害，对下游民众的生命财产安全造成威胁。因此，对跃动冰川的跃动过程及其跃动规律的研究具有重要的现实意义。然而由于跃动冰川成因复杂，并且由于决定其特性的冰川基底特性很难获取，因此目前仍是国际冰川学研究的一大难题。.本项目以青藏高原东北部阿尼玛卿山这一跃动冰川集中分布的区域为研究区，利用1960s以来的多源遥感数据，以GIS和卫星立体测量为主要手段，通过提取不同时期跃动冰川的面积、长度、表面高程和运动速度等特征参数，同时结合野外GPS测量和冰川定点监测，对研究区跃动冰川的跃动历史和跃动特征进行深入分析和总结研究，力图把握研究区冰川跃动的规律，并尝试对未来可能的跃动进行预测，为进一步研究跃动冰川的形成演化机理和研究其它重点区域的跃动冰川奠定理论基础。.通过本项目的研究，在项目结题之前，已完成了阿尼玛卿山地区跃动和非跃动冰川在1960s-2010s年间面积、长度和部分时期表面高程等特征参数变化过程的研究，详细揭示了研究区两类冰川在过去50年间的变化过程，一定程度上揭示了研究区跃动冰川表面变化的特征和规律。同时，形成了提取跃动冰川面积、长度、表面高程和表面运动速度等关键参数完整技术流程和对应的软件、方法体系，为深入研究跃动冰川形成机理、冰川跃动规律剖析以及开展跃动冰川预测打下坚实基础。目前，部分研究成果仍在优化处理和深入分析过程中，并将在未来两年内陆续发表。.