气候变化影响下社会经济干旱的长期集合预测方法研究：以东江流域为例

Drought is a complex natural hazard that may have destructive damages on societal properties and even lives. Generally, socioeconomic drought occurs when water resources systems cannot meet water demand, mainly due to a weather-related shortfall in water supply. However, it is only until recently that there have been a few studies focusing on socioeconomic drought. The general objective of the proposed project is to propose a method for long-term ensemble forecast of socioeconomic drought under climate change, taking the advantages of the following fields, i.e., distributed hydrological model and Global Climate Model (GCM). The ensemble river forecasting system and the Socioeconomic Drought Index (SEDI) developed in the applicant’s previous studies are considered as the foundation of the project. The content of the project consists of: 1) Hydrological process simulation and long-term ensemble forecast of streamflow in the East River basin during the dry season; 2) A new method for identifying socioeconomic drought with the consideration of changing water demand; 3) The trend and mechanisms of socioeconomic drought in the East River basin. The proposed project aims to make important progress in the field of socioeconomic drought. It is believable that the proposed project will be a strong support for the decision making of drought mitigation in the foreseeable future; and meanwhile, the proposed project can meet the requirement of socioeconomic development. Consequently, it is of great importance in both academic and engineering application.

干旱灾害对社会经济和人民生命财产安全造成的破坏性极大。一般地，当水资源系统由于供水短缺而不能满足社会用水需求时，就会发生社会经济干旱，但关于社会经济干旱的研究工作目前仍较为鲜见。本项目在申请人前期开展的水情集合预报系统和社会经济干旱指数等研究成果的基础上，充分利用分布式流域水文模型和全球气候模型等领域的研发成果，提出气候变化影响下社会经济干旱的长期集合预测方法，具体研究内容包括：1）东江流域枯水期水文过程模拟及水情长期集合预报；2）考虑需水量变化的社会经济干旱识别方法；3）东江流域社会经济干旱的趋势分析和调控机制。本项目研究旨在社会经济干旱相关研究方面取得重要突破，远期可为我国的抗旱减灾工作提供决策参考和技术支持，同时满足社会经济发展的需求，具有十分重要的科学意义和应用价值。

干旱是一种因水资源严重短缺引起的自然现象，能够对人民生命财产安全造成破坏性的影响。一般地，干旱可以分为四大类，即：气象干旱、水文干旱、农业干旱和社会经济干旱。之前研究多集中于前三类干旱，而对社会经济干旱的研究工作仍较为鲜见。在本项目的实施期内，项目负责人及其团队在前期开展的水情集合预报系统和社会经济干旱指数等研究成果的基础上，充分集成利用分布式流域水文模型和全球气候模型等领域的研发成果，完成了气候变化影响下社会经济干旱的长期集合预测方法的研究工作，具体包括：1）建立了适用于东江流域枯水期水情预报的分布式水文模型，提高了东江流域枯水期水文过程的模拟精度；2）提出了一种考虑水资源系统可恢复性的社会经济干旱识别方法；3）揭示了不同类型干旱传播机制；4）分析了水库对局地气候的影响。本项目成果可为我国的抗旱减灾工作提供决策参考和技术支持，同时满足社会经济发展的需求，具有十分重要的科学意义和应用价值。