农地流转、农民社会保障与农业转移人口迁移----作用机制与政策调控

With the rapid development of the rural economy and agricultural modernization, farmers' willingness to actively participate in urbanization become strong, and different groups of farmers' willingness to urbanization has obviously differentiated, which is the result of autonomous decision-making behavior caused by famers' pursuing maximum utility. Because of develop speed, reform efforts, regional differences and some imbalance development, related as rural land transfer, farmers' social security and migration of rural residents show a interlocked state of mutual restriction, greatly hindering the improvement of the level of agricultural modernization and urbanization quality, and becoming a major theoretical and policy issues of the development of "four modernizations"(industrial modernization, agricultural modernization, defense modernization, modernization of science and technology)..This study attempts to reveal spatial and temporal differences and evolution rule from different stages of rural development, regional development and the relationship among the three, analyzing mechanism of action among the three, evaluating system response and performance based on objective function of farmers and the government, trying to put forward system reform and innovative path by system innovation of costs-benefit from farmers and government..This project will mainly adopt decision analysis model based on household, on the basis of field research, integrating model of rural labor transfer, cost-benefit model of system innovation, system performance evaluation and other methods. Conclusions will promote agricultural modernization, and provide scientific basis for improving the quality of urbanization.

伴随着农村经济和农业现代化的快速发展，农民主动城镇化意愿加强和不同群体农民城镇化意愿分化的特点日趋明显，这是农民追求效用最大化导致的自主决策行为的结果，而与此密切相关的农地流转、农民社会保障建设却由于发展速度、改革力度、区域差异等不均衡发展呈现出一种相互制约的互锁状态，极大地阻碍了农业转移人口合理迁移和城镇化质量的进一步提高，成为“四化”发展的重大理论与政策问题。本研究试图揭示三者在农村不同发展阶段、不同区域发展及相互关系的时空差异和演变规律；分析三者之间的作用机制；基于农户和政府目标函数，对制度响应和绩效进行评价；试图从农户和政府两个层面的制度创新成本—收益等方面提出制度改革和创新的路径设计。 .本课题将主要采用基于农户决策分析模型，在实地调研的基础上，综合农村劳动力流转模型、制度创新的成本—收益模型、制度绩效评价等研究方法，研究结论将为促进农业现代化、提高城镇化质量提供科学依据。

目前，农地制度、农民社会保障制度对农业转移人口迁移呈现一种相互制约的互锁状态，影响了城市化质量的进一步提高。研究以农户行为理论、计划行为理论、产权理论等为基础，以江苏、安徽、浙江3省8市19个村庄共2186个农户调查数据为基础， 构建 “迁移意愿----迁移行为”的分析框架，揭示农地流转、农民社会保障对农业转移人口迁移意愿和迁移行为的作用机理，为进一步完善农地流转及农民社会保障政策提供理论依据。.研究结果：（1）农地流转和农民社会保障共同对农业转移人口将迁移意愿转化为迁移行为发生作用。农地流转整体上对该转化有明显的促进作用，扩大农地流转规模、提高农地流转价格、增强农地流转合同规范性、延长农地流转期限更能促进该转化过程；由于新农保及新农合水平较低，无法对农业转移人口迁移意愿到迁移决策过程起到显著影响。相比于农村社会保障，城镇社会保障对农业转移人口将迁移意愿转化为迁移决策有明显的促进作用。（2）农地具有的基本生活保障、经济保障和就业保障功能对农户农地流转意愿的影响呈现地区差异，经济越发达，农地保障功能强弱对农户农地转出意愿的影响就越大。农地就业保障功能和经济保障功能愈弱，农户愈是愿意转出农地。（3）农地流转整体上促进了农业转移人口迁移，但是不同流转模式、不同流转方向对农业转移人口迁移的影响存在差异，土地股份合作可以通过释放劳动力、提高家庭收入、提升农地产权安全等有效促进农村劳动力转移；农地转出提高了农业劳动生产率，增加了农户财产性收入，增强农户迁移支付能力，促进农村劳动力迁移。（4）留地安置是实现农业转移人口市民化过程中保障农民土地增值收益共享的一种实践。留地安置政策在一定程度上保证了农业转移人口能在公平规则下对土地增值收益享有公平的共享权利、均等的共享机会和公平的共享结果。同时，留地安置政策下，集体通过对留用地的开发建设，培育了稳定的收入来源，不仅进一步增加了农业转移人口收入，还提高了农业转移人口的医疗和社会保障水平，改善农业转移人口生活和教育环境，促进农业转移人口城市就业、融入城市等。.本项目研究不同农地流转模式、农民社会保障参与程度等对农业转移人口迁移意愿、迁移行为的系统影响， 揭示农地流转、农民社会保障对农业转移人口将迁移意愿转化为迁移行为的作用机制，为政府规范农地流转、优化农民社会保障政策、促进农业转移人口迁移提出了相应的政策建议。