基于动态空间的危险化学品事故应急决策研究

Hazardous chemical accidents, a kind of typical accidents with high frequency, are distinguished from other disastrous accidents in their harmfulness, diffusivity and chains of consequences. They are mainly characterized by the facts that their accident affected space and the density of hazardous chemicals are changing as time prolongs and the wind speed and direction changes, and they are easily lead to a series of secondary accidents. .In this project, we proposed to investigate the emergency decision making problems for hazardous chemical accidents with dynamic changes in the rescue spaces based on real-time spatial information systems. We intended to implement and build models and algorithms for these emergency rescue decisions by network optimization, uncertainty programming, traffic flow and computational simulation techniques..Based on the dynamic spaces of accident and rescue, this project focuses on the emergency resources scheduling for hazardous chemical accidents with consideration of possible secondary accidents, large-scale mass evacuation with uncertain interval situation, and collaborative optimization between resource scheduling and mass evacuation. For effectiveness and efficiency, the project will design novel algorithms for these models of rescue for hazardous chemical accidents. The efficient algorithms will greatly benefit the rescues. .The project is expected to provide novel models, algorithms and software systems of scientific and reasonable emergency decision-making for hazardous chemical accidents. It will offer scientific support for realizing the rapidity, efficiency and standardization of emergency rescue in hazardous chemical accidents.

危险化学品事故是一类频发的典型事故，与其它灾害事故的最大区别在于"危害性、扩散性和连锁性"，主要表现为事故影响区域及区域内的危险化学品浓度会随着时间的推延，风速风向等条件的变化而一直变化，且极易引发一系列次生事故。因此，本项目将基于实时空间信息系统，考虑救援区域的动态变化情景，综合运用网络优化、不确定规划、交通流理论、模拟仿真等理论与方法，深入研究危险化学品事故应急决策相关问题。重点研究：考虑次生事故的危险化学品事故应急资源调度问题；基于不确定区间数的危险化学品事故大规模人群疏导问题以及同时考虑资源调度和疏散的危险化学品事故应急决策协调优化问题。最后，考虑到计算时间越快，越能赢得决策和救援时间，针对上述模型设计高效快速算法。本项目的研究将为危险化学品事故应急决策提供科学依据，为实现危险化学品事故应急救援的快速化、高效化和规范化提供科学支撑。

危险化学品事故是一类特殊的灾害事故，其所特有的危害性和扩散性使得应急救援更具挑战。本项目在前人的研究基础上，通过构建动态空间平台，在更为真实的情景中研究灾害事故（特别是危险化学品事故）的应急资源调度问题和应急疏散问题。主要研究内容包括：不确定动态环境下的多物资应急调度问题、基于危险化学品扩散浓度的应急疏散问题以及基于流量冲突的应急救援协同问题。. 本项目在此期间已在《Int. J. Production Economics》、《Operations Research Letters》、《Plos One》、《Journal of Systems Science and Complexity》、《Environmental Engineering and Management Journal》等国内外杂志上发表论文15篇，其中SSCI、SCI双检索2篇、SCI检索11篇、基金委管理学部认定A类期刊2篇；项目负责人于2014年在POMS International Conference上做小组邀请报告；获得山东省社科优秀成果二等奖1项。同时，项目组与山东省安监局危化处合作完成了3份研究报告。