复杂性视角下重大基础设施工程可持续性评价方法与机制研究

With rapid development of mega infrastructure projects, and its impact on the social and economic environment is also growing. However, mega infrastructure sustainability evaluation research lags behind the construction process and the sustainable requirements. Mega projects has artificial complex system characteristic, its sustainability evaluation is different from general engineering. From the perspectives of complexity, according to the evaluation object - subject - method - mechanism research path, This project, based on the compound ecosystem theory methods, analyzes coupling mechanism of mega projects - economy - resources - environment - society compound ecosystem, and determine the system boundary and evaluation scope; Constructing multi-dimensional integration identification methods to identify the subject of evaluation, based on the social network and the role of linkage matrix to analyze the evaluation subject role and interaction; Comprehensive considering the sustainable objective requirement and stakeholders subjective demands, based on three dimensions, including time, space and subject, to establish index system, and analyze the logical relationship among them; Considering the fuzziness and uncertainty assessment information, caused by the complexity of project and bounded rationality of evaluation subject, comprehensive entropy weight method is used to determine weights, and establishes a mega project sustainability interval intuitionistic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Designs sustainable dynamic assessment mechanism and feedback mechanism with decision-making, based on the life cycle and the evaluation subject participation. Research results can enrich mega project management theory and promote sustainable construction and development.

重大基础设施工程快速发展，对社会经济环境影响日益增强，然而重大工程可持续性评价研究滞后于建设进程与可持续要求。重大工程具有人工复杂系统特征，其可持续性评价不同于一般工程，课题从复杂性视角依循评价对象-主体-指标-方法-机制的研究路径，基于复合生态系统理论方法研究重大工程-经济-社会-资源-环境复合生态系统耦合机理，分析系统边界和评价范围；构建评价主体多维集成识别方法，基于社会网络和角色联动矩阵分析主体互动关系；综合考虑可持续客观要求和利益相关人主观诉求，基于时间、空间和主体三个维度构建指标体系，分析指标间逻辑关系；针对工程复杂性和评价主体有限理性导致的评价信息模糊性和不确定性，采用综合熵权法赋权，构建重大工程可持续性区间直觉模糊综合评价方法和步骤；设计基于全寿命周期和主体参与的可持续动态开放评价机制及其与决策间的作用与反馈机制。研究成果能够丰富重大工程管理理论并服务于工程可持续建设与发展。

重大基础设施工程对我国经济社会发展、生态环境保护、公众健康与国家安全等具有重要影响。不同于一般基础设施工程，重大基础设施工程规模和投资巨大，参与主体多元且层次复杂，寿命周期长、影响深远，具有异质性和自适应性等人工复杂系统特点。课题基于复杂性视角，将重大基础设施工程系统与经济、社会、资源和环境系统有机联系组成的整体视作复合生态系统，基于复合生态系统理论分析重大基础设施工程-经济-社会-资源-环境复合生态系统耦合机理，确定系统边界、构成、功能和特征；运用文献梳理、问卷调查、社会网络分析等方法识别重大基础设施工程复合生态系统的可持续评价主体，厘清主体角色和主体间互动关系；基于重大基础设施工程复合生态系统框架，充分考虑利益相关者在工程全寿命周期各个阶段的利益诉求，构建重大基础设施工程可持续性评价指标体系并分析指标间逻辑关系；针对工程复杂性和评价主体有限理性导致的评价信息模糊性和不确定性，构建重大基础设施工程可持续性区间直觉模糊综合评价模型；综合考虑重大基础设施工程可持续客观要求和利益相关人主观诉求，结合耦合协调模型，构建判断重大基础设施工程可持续性维度水平和协调情况分析模型，设计基于全寿命周期和多元主体参与的可持续动态评价机制及决策反馈机制。研究成果丰富了重大基础设施工程管理理论并服务于工程可持续建设与发展，围绕项目内容已发表论文23篇，其中SCI\SSCI检索论文16篇，国家自然科学基金委管理学部重要学术期刊1篇。研究项目成果被企业采纳3次；相关研究成果获得黑龙江省高校人文社会科学研究优秀成果奖一等奖。