气候变化背景下中国北方玉米北扩潜力与风险及应对机制

It is urgent to understand how maize northern expansion potential and risk in the north of China are and what the coping mechanisms are under climate change for solving the national needs of increasing the planting area of maize and ensuring national food security, and it is also a key problem for achieving the "National new 100000000000 catties of grain production capacity planning (2009 - 2020)". This project would focus on maize production in the northern region (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region) of China, where the climatic change is drastically. The project would be studied based on the breakthrough point of maize northern expansion potential and risk evaluation as well as the key scientific problems of climatic control factors determining maize cultivation distribution and comprehensive evaluation of main maize meteorological disaster risk. The project adopts comprehensive research methods, including theoretical analysis, field sowing experiment, model simulation, agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment and ArcGIS spatial analysis. This project will reveal the climate control mechanisms of maize cultivation distribution, and will propose multiple maize meteorological disaster comprehensive risk assessment method for different maize growth stages and the whole growth period. And it will also develop the evaluation method and index system of maize northern expansion potential reflecting the effects of agriculture climatic resources and multiple maize meteorological disasters. The risk regionalization of maize northern expansion in the north of China and the countermeasures coping with climate change will be given in this project. The research results of this project will provide other regions or other crop to orderly adapt to climate change with the reference of evaluating the expansion potential and risk of crop cultivation area.

弄清北方地区玉米种植的北扩潜力、风险及其应对机制是解决国家增加玉米种植面积和确保国家粮食安全的迫切需求，也是实现《全国新增1000亿斤粮食生产能力规划(2009–2020年)》的关键。本项目试图以气候变化剧烈的北方地区(黑龙江、吉林、辽宁和内蒙古自治区)玉米生产为研究对象，以玉米北扩潜力及其风险评价为切入点，围绕玉米种植分布的气候控制因子与主要农业气象灾害风险的综合评估这一关键科学问题，采用理论分析、野外播种试验、模型模拟、农业气象灾害风险评价与ArcGIS 空间分析相结合的研究方法，揭示玉米种植的气候控制机制，发展玉米不同生长阶段和整个生育期的多种农业气象灾害风险评价方法，建立反映农业气候资源和多种农业气象灾害综合影响的北方玉米北扩潜力评价方法与指标体系，给出气候变化背景下玉米北扩风险区划及对策措施。研究成果可为研究其他区域或作物有序适应气候变化，扩大种植面积的潜力与风险提供借鉴。

弄清北方地区玉米种植的北扩潜力、风险及其应对机制是解决国家增加玉米种植面积和确保国家粮食安全的迫切需求。项目以北方地区玉米生产为研究对象，以玉米北扩潜力及其风险评价为切入点，重点开展了4个方面研究，即玉米种植的气候控制机制及北扩潜力，北方玉米主要农业气象灾害的影响与风险评价，气候变化背景下玉米北扩种植潜力与风险，北方地区玉米北扩时空格局演变及其应对措施。. 通过项目实施，揭示了玉米种植的气候控制机制，评价了气象条件对春玉米种植分布的影响，给出了我国春玉米种植的气候适宜分布、不同种植适宜等级的气候因子范围以及春玉米种植分布的年代际动态和北扩潜力。提出了东北春玉米不同生育阶段日蒸散发估算的适用模型、阐明了东北春玉米低温冷害的时空演变规律，评估了北方春玉米气象灾损与风险以及未来气候变化对春玉米生产的气候危险性，指出干旱与低温冷害是春玉米面临的主要灾害风险。给出了1961-2010年我国春玉米潜在种植北界变化与气候因子的关系，进一步验证了干旱与低温冷害是春玉米未来北扩面临的主要气候风险。模拟分析了1966-2040年中国春玉米气候适宜分布的年代际动态，给出了春玉米北扩时空格局演变，指出针对未来春玉米北扩风险拟采取的应对措施有：(1)根据不同气候年型适当调整玉米种植比例；(2)适当扩大晚熟中晚熟品种的比例；(3)在冷凉地区可适当增加玉米等喜温作物比例；(4)选育或引进生育期相对较长、感温性强或较强、感光性弱的中晚熟玉米品种，逐步取代目前盛行的生育期短、产量较低的早熟玉米品种；(5)培育抗旱玉米品种，推广节水栽培技术。建立了包含气象、作物、种植与灾害信息的北方地区玉米种植与气候关系数据库。 . 项目发表论文8篇，其中SCI论文4篇；1人晋升为副教授（何奇瑾），指导本科生论文3名（胡明新、陆天蔚、刘思妤），合作培养硕士研究生1名（吴东），实现了项目的预期目标。