基于全球钴产业链网络的中国钴资源风险控制策略研究

Cobalt is one of the critical material inputs for developing electric vehicles and emerging advanced technologies and is listed as national strategic metal by the government. Supply disruption is the main risk facing the cobalt industry, and the risk happened in one stage of the industrial chain could propagate to other stages leading to the cascading failure of the global cobalt industrial chain. China is the largest cobalt smelting country and the biggest electric vehicles market in the world, playing a critical role in the global cobalt industrial chain, studying the propagation of supply disruption thus is of importance for Chinese utilization of cobalt resource and sustainable development. This project intends to study China’s role and the propagation mechanism of supply disruption, from both geographical perspective and process perspective, in the global cobalt industrial chain multiplex network, which is built by combining multiregional input-output model and multiplex network theory. After that, this study will simulate the impact of supply disruptions on China’s cobalt industry. Finally, this research will put forward policy suggestions in national strategic cobalt reserves, protection and categorized cooperation strategy with key partners, and adjusting and optimizing the use structure of cobalt resource to secure the national cobalt industrial chain and promote China's sustainable development.

钴是新能源汽车等新兴产业的关键矿产投入之一，是国家战略性矿产。供应风险是钴产业目前面临的主要风险，主要供应国和贸易渠道的供应中断会通过相互关联和依赖的全球钴产业链进行传播，造成多米诺骨牌效应。中国是全球第一大钴冶炼国和第一大新能源汽车市场，在全球钴产业链中占有重要地位，研究钴供应风险传播对中国的钴资源利用与可持续发展有重要意义。本项目拟结合多区域投入产出模型和多层网络理论，构建全球钴产业链网络，挖掘中国在该网络中的地位，融合空间视角和过程视角研究该网络中的供应风险传播机制，并模拟仿真供应风险传播对中国的影响。基于仿真结果，从国家钴资源战略储备、中国关键伙伴分类合作和保护策略以及调整优化钴资源利用结构等角度为国家提供钴供应风险控制方面的政策建议，维护国家钴产业链安全和促进中国可持续发展。

正确认识和把握初级产品供给保障已成为我国发展面临的新的重大理论和实践问题。钴是动力电池的关键初级产品，对外依存度高，其外部供应的中断将威胁中国新能源汽车产业的健康发展。因此，研究钴矿供应风险传播机制对中国有效保障钴矿供应、促进新能源汽车产业健康发展具有重要意义。基于产业链视角，本项目利用复杂网络理论（1）构建了全球钴产业链网络模型，识别了中国在全球钴产业链网络中的角色和地位；（2）构建了钴矿供应风险传播模型，模拟分析了刚果（金）等四个关键国家的供应风险传播过程；（3）从钴矿资源储备、钴资源回收等方面分析了中国钴矿供应风险控制措施。这些研究成果丰富了钴资源产业领域的研究内容，拓展了多层网络在资源风险传播研究上的应用，也为国家钴矿储备策略和钴资源回收政策提供了理论支持。总体而言，本项目顺利地完成了预期的研究目标。