基于环境规制量化的绿色技术进步驱动全要素生产率提升路径研究

Abstract: Green technical progress driving Total Factor Productivity growth plays an important role to realize transformation of economic growth in China. Based on the systematic collection, collation and quantification of environmental regulation, this study will build parametric, semi-parametric and nonparametric model to explore the path of how green technical progress drives Total Factor Productivity growth in China according to the theory of Porter's Hypothesis, Induced Technological Progress and Environmental Kuznets Curve. First, this study will use policy documents quantification method to form the structured indicators of environmental regulation in China. Then this study will construct the theoretical model to describe the impact of environmental regulation on green technological innovation and further come to the role of environmental regulation on green technical progress. Based on self-built regulatory indicators, this study will also make specific empirical tests to the above-mentioned theoretical model by the methods of SDPD Model with space autoregressive error term, Simultaneous Equations Model and so on. Third, this study will use semi-parametric variable coefficients Dynamic Spatial Error Model including time lag effect to measure the time and space effect of green technical progress on Total Factor Productivity, and calculate the Total Factor Productivity under different environmental regulation scenarios by constructing RS-DSGE Macro Dynamic Model. Ultimately, the overall policy transmission mechanism of environmental regulation on green technological innovation which will promote green technical progress and further drive Total Factor Productivity will be figured out. This study can provide the theoretical support for the green development of China.

绿色技术进步驱动全要素生产率提升是实现我国增长方式绿色转型的关键。本研究通过对我国的环境规制进行系统搜集、整理和量化，根据波特假说、诱致性技术进步和环境库兹涅次曲线等理论，构建参数、半参数和非参数的计量模型探究绿色技术进步驱动全要素生产率提升的路径。首先，运用政策文献量化方法形成我国环境规制结构化的指标系统；其二，构造环境规制促进绿色技术创新，进而引致绿色技术进步的理论模型，基于自建规制指标，通过含空间自回归误差项的SDPD模型和联立方程模型等对其进行实证检验；其三，运用半参数变系数包含时间滞后效应的动态空间误差模型等测度绿色技术进步对全要生产率的时间和空间效应，并通过构建RS-DSGE宏观动态模型模拟测算不同环境规制情境下的全要素生产率状况；进而揭示环境规制促进绿色技术创新、引致绿色技术进步，进而驱动全要素生产率提升的全链条政策传导机制和路径。为我国的绿色发展提供理论支撑。

绿色技术进步驱动全要素生产率提升是实现我国增长方式绿色转型的关键。本研究通过对我国改革开放以来的环境规制进行系统搜集、整理和量化，根据波特假说、诱致性技术进步和环境库兹涅茨曲线等理论，揭示了环境规制促进绿色技术创新、引致绿色技术进步，进而驱动全要素生产率提升的全链条政策传导机制和路径。研究发现：1.从趋势上看，我国环境规制的总效力在逐渐加强，但平均效力却在降低，政策发文部门间的协同日趋紧密，演化出了以环保部门为“轴心”的“辐射”状态；2.不同类型环境规制的作用效果不同，现阶段市场激励型对绿色技术创新的促进作用更好，且规制类型的合理协同可以更好地促进绿色技术创新；3.绿色技术进步对全要素生产率的促进作用是非线性的，然而“十四五”规划的能源强度目标却落在了驱动效应更弱的右侧。政策建议：1. 出台加速绿色技术进步，鼓励应对气候变化创新性方案的规制政策；2. 关注重要节能低碳相关科技的研发和应用；3. 增加节能低碳创新型创业的信贷支持额度；4. 加快数据领域的科技创新；5. 加强低碳、能源、经济、环境等相关政策和部门的协同。