农业低碳技术应用激励机制与支持政策研究—基于江西规模农户的实证

Under the background of the country strongly supporting of science and technology innovation and agriculture facing increasingly serious pollution, low carbon technology is the inevitable choice of agriculture to cope with climate change. The Chinese government attaches great importance to this. Specifically, in 2015 Central no.1 files clearly put forward agriculture must pay attention to scientific and technological innovation and intensive sustainable development, walk on the modern agricultural development road. In this project we take Jiangxi province for example, take the certain-scale farmers in Jiangxi province as the research object and conduct household investigations to obtain data and information of institute need. Using the factor analysis, multiple regression empirical research method, we try to investigate incentives and support policies of low carbon technology application for scale farmers. The main research contents: First, build the analysis model of scale farmers’ low carbon technology application behavior in agriculture; Second ,make descriptive statistical analysis of farmer's low carbon technology application behavior in agriculture and quantitative observe the manifestation of the application behavior; Third, use the ordered Probit model bivariate Probit model to analyze the factors affecting the support policy for scale farmers on low carbon technology application in agriculture. Fourth, use the double logarithm linear regression model to analyze the influence of income growth of scale farmers after low carbon technology application in agriculture. Fifth, carry on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of the support policy for scale farmers on low carbon technology application in agriculture; finally, put forward countermeasures and suggestions to perfect support policy on low carbon technology application in agriculture.

在国家大力支持科技创新及农业面源污染日趋严重的背景下，低碳技术是农业应对气候变化的必然选择。2015年中央1号文件明确提出，农业必须注重科技创新、注重可持续的集约发展，走现代农业发展道路。本项目以江西省为例，以江西省内的规模农户为研究对象，进行入户调查，获取研究所需数据与资料，运用因子分析、多元回归等实证方法，考察规模农户农业低碳技术应用激励机制及支持政策。主要研究内容：首先，构建规模农户农业低碳技术应用行为分析模型；第二，对规模农户农业低碳技术应用行为进行描述性统计，定量观测其应用行为的具体表现；第三，运用二元或有序Probit模型分析支持政策对规模农户农业低碳技术应用的影响因素；第四，用双对数线性回归模型分析规模农户农业低碳技术应用对收入增长的影响；第五，对影响规模农户农业低碳技术应用行为支持政策的作用机理进行理论分析；最后，提出完善农业低碳技术应用政策的对策建议。

农业低碳技术是治理农村生态环境、建设美丽乡村的重要技术之一，应用好农业低碳技术有助于早日实现农业现代化的和乡村振兴战略目标。本研究以农业低碳技术应用为研究对象，在前人研究的基础上，对江西省11市100县的近1000规模农户进行了实地调研，获取了研究所需的第一手数据。研究表明，江西省农业碳排放结构中，第二和第三大碳源分别为农药和柴油，正好和全国的碳源结构相反，说明江西省农业机械化水平较低，传统农药使用较多；同时，研究还显示江西省多年来没能实现农业碳排放的绝对减排。农业低碳技术应用意愿驱动因素研究表明，户主年龄、户主受教育程度、生产组织形式、农业生产地是否处于传统产粮区和政府是否发放农业低碳技术应用补贴与规模农户农业低碳技术应用意愿显著相关，户主是否担任村干部、地形条件、政府是否组织农业低碳技术推广培训和规模农户能否从农技推广部门或农技人员处获得有关农业低碳技术信息的差异未显著影响规模农户农业低碳技术应用意愿。农业低碳技术应用行为驱动因素研究表明，农业低碳技术应用程度仍然较低，农业低碳技术的减碳效应主要取决于对应碳源的比重及其应用程度。基于以上研究，提出在健全低碳农业发展制度保障的前提下，激励农户推广保护性耕作、水稻直播、测土配方施肥、新型灌溉技术、生物农药以及秸秆还田等农业低碳技术的应用，同时为农业低碳技术的推广提供人才、交通、互联网以及培训学习等配套支持的政策建议。