考虑决策要素复杂关联情境的决策分析方法研究

In recent years, the domestic and foreign scholars have indicated that the interdependent context exists widely in decision analysis problems and could influence the process and result of decision analysis. Also, they have studied decision analysis problems and methods considering an interdependent context of single decision element. However, there exist some practical problems motioned a complex interdependent context of decision elements, which is with multiple interdependent objects, various structural interdependent network and diverse interdependent information. How to solve decision analysis problems considering such a context is an important issue. But there still lacks of systemic theory analysis and applicative method study at present. In this project, a complex interdependent context of decision elements is firstly studied, where interdependent mechanisms of decision elements, structures of interdependent network and characteristics of interdependent information are analyzed. Then, the decision analysis problems considering a complex interdependent context of decision elements are classified, and corresponding research frameworks are constructed, respectively. On this basis, several targeted methods for decision information processing and fusion as well as decision analysis are proposed according to the characteristics of presented problems. The effectiveness of proposed methods can be further verified by some application studies in network operation of cloud manufacturing services, new product development and risk management of urban lifelines. These research findings will lay a theoretical foundation for further discussing decision analysis problems considering a complex interdependent context of decision elements, and provide a methodology support for effectively solving the practical problems.

近年来，国内外学者指出关联情境广泛存在于决策分析问题中且会影响决策分析过程和结果，并研究了考虑单一决策要素关联情境的决策分析问题与方法。然而，许多现实问题还涉及具有关联主体多元性、关联网络多构性和关联信息多样性的决策要素复杂关联情境。如何解决考虑该情境的决策分析问题是一个重要课题，但目前尚缺乏系统的理论剖析和适用的方法研究。本项目以决策要素复杂关联情境为切入点，分析决策要素关联机理、关联网络结构和关联信息特征；然后，研究考虑决策要素复杂关联情境的决策分析问题归类并构建相应的研究框架；在此基础上，结合所提炼问题的特点提出针对性的决策信息处理与融合方法以及各类决策分析方法，并通过云制造服务网络运营、新产品研发和城市生命线风险管理等领域的应用研究验证所提方法的有效性。研究成果将为进一步探讨考虑决策要素复杂关联情境的决策分析问题奠定理论基础，并为现实问题的有效解决提供方法支撑。

决策要素彼此影响、相互作用而衍生的关联情境是造成当前决策分析问题日益复杂化的主要原因之一，且其对决策分析过程和结果具有明显的影响。近年来，考虑单一决策要素关联情境的决策分析问题与方法研究已经引起了国内外学者的较高关注。然而，许多现实问题还涉及具有关联主体多元性、关联网络多构性和关联信息多样性的决策要素复杂关联情境，如何解决上述问题是一个重要课题，但目前尚缺乏系统的理论剖析和适用的方法研究。本项目以“理论探索—方法研究—实例验证”为主线，在理论探索方面，从关联衍生机理、关联网络结构、关联信息特征等视角深度解析了决策要素复杂关联情境，给出了决策要素关联类型的典型划分、关联结构的图形绘制与特点描述以及关联信息的研究趋势和典型特征，进而从问题提炼、分类归纳等方面研究了考虑决策要素复杂关联情境的决策分析问题特征并构建了相应的研究框架；在方法研究方面，从适用情境、原理、贡献与创新、信息处理能力、应用复杂性等角度比对了已有的关联型决策分析方法，并结合所提炼问题的特点提出了关联型决策信息的处理与融合方法以及考虑不同复杂关联情境的决策分析方法；在实例验证方面，通过在城市生命线风险因素识别、运行风险评估、风险应对方案选择以及科技资源使用效益评估、配置效率测度等典型领域的应用验证了方法的有效性。研究成果为进一步探讨考虑决策要素复杂关联情境的决策分析问题奠定了良好的理论基础并推动了相关领域的前沿性探索，也为现实问题的有效解决提供了重要的方法支撑和决策参考。