基于碳平衡分区的县域低碳空间规划理论与方法研究

Aiming at the prominent contradiction between China’s increasing economic and social development and the requirement of low-carbon development at the county level, the exploration to achieve regional low-carbon development through the way of spatial planning is essential.Compared with the current low-carbon planning research which mostly focus on urban areas, this research is aiming the counties which include both urban and rural areas in economically developed region.Through the overall investigation and data collection, this research will establish the measurement and analysis method reflecting counties’ carbon emission.By exploring the carbon cycle mechanism through the "human—carbon activity—land use" cooperating system, we will set up the classification of zone types by measuring carbon emissions and distribution. The counties’ land is divided into four types of carbon emission zones,corresponding to four types of functional areas. We will build up a zoning theory of carbon balance and establish different carbon emission reduction targets for different zones. Furthermore, we will explore and establish a theoretical framework and method system of low-carbon spatial planning by scientifically land using for manufactural, residential and ecological area, which includes intensive and compact urban spatial form, structure-optimized land using, urban-rural shared network of public facilities, high-efficient traffic and balanced residence-work connection, to form the innovative ideas and methods of low-carbon spatial planning in county level. This research takes Changxing County in Zhejiang Province as the main object of investigation.

针对我国县域经济社会发展水平不断提高和低碳发展要求的突出矛盾，从空间布局规划这一源头探寻区域低碳发展的根本途径。相比于国内外既有的低碳规划研究主要关注城市区域，本项目以经济发达地区的城乡区域为特征的县域为研究对象，通过对县域经济社会调研和资料收集，建立县域碳排放计量分析的方法；探索“人-碳活动-用地”耦合单元的碳循环机制，建立衡量碳排放差异的分区类型和分布特征，将县域解构为四类碳排放区域并对应四类经济功能区；针对不同碳排放分区，构建不同减碳目标和措施的碳平衡分区理论；探索建立实现县域层面生产用地、生活用地及生态用地的共轭发展方法，形成集约紧凑的城镇空间形态、结构优化的土地组合利用、城乡统筹和网络化的公共设施布局、可达性的交通和职住平衡的县域低碳空间布局；建立基于碳平衡分区优化的县域低碳空间布局的理论框架及方法体系，形成县域低碳规划的创新思想和方法。本研究以浙江省长兴县为主要考察对象。

空间规划作为重要的结构调整式减排手段，应用前景广阔。以低碳为目标的空间规划通过规划要素的统筹与优化，对营造低碳的人居环境十分重要。然而，由于对规划视角下各类规划要素的碳排放效应规律认知不足，成为空间规划发挥控碳作用的瓶颈。.本项目针对城镇空间规划要素的碳排放效应机理这个共性科学问题，以浙江省长兴县为主要研究对象，通过“碳排放计量—碳活动特征和轨迹识别—控碳机理—优化调控”的研究路径，形成基于碳平衡分区优化的县域低碳规划理论和方法。具体包括：1）提出了以用地单元为核算对象的规划用地碳排放计量方法以及点—线—面（P-L-A）分类分配方法，进行县域碳排放的计量与空间化，从而建立了与规划体系对接的碳排放计量分析方法；构建了长兴县规划用地碳排放数据库系统，绘制碳排放矢量地图；揭示了用地类型、建成环境等与用地碳排放的关系机理；2）揭示县域各类型规划用地的碳排放活动特征和轨迹，揭示“人类活动-碳排放-规划用地”耦合的碳活动机制；提出区域碳排放特征的概念,构建识别县域碳排放特征类型的方法。3）通过机器学习方法和GIS技术的结合，实现对县域建成环境、用地结构等因素与碳排放的时空演化分析和情景模拟，通过空间规划要素与碳排放之间的作用机制，提出碳平衡分区优化的空间规划控碳方法；4）从空间规划的碳排放约束机制出发，结合我国现行规划体系，提出了从“分区管控”-“地类管控”-“地块管控”的多级规划碳管控体系，以及从“边界管控”-“用途管控”-“位置管控”-“指标管控”的规划控碳系统方法。.本项目研究成果累计发表SCI论文5篇，国内期刊4篇，会议论文3篇，申请发明专利5项，软件著作权2项，培养博士生6名，硕士生2名，论文成果《空间规划的碳排放约束机制与治理框架》荣获“2022年金经昌中国城市规划优秀论文奖”。本项目建立的县域低碳规划理论和方法丰富了城乡规划学科内涵，为低碳空间规划提供了重要理论依据。