珠江三角洲城市群人为热源解析及其增温效应模拟

Anthropogenic heat release is produced by human activities, which sources from industry emission, transportation emission and living emission. As one of the most important input terms to urban energy, it is recognized as one of the drinving forces to warm the city up. Current researches has realized to assess warming effects and spatial-temporal pattern of anthropogenic. However, how to increasing the accuracy of assessing? How will the spatial-temporal pattern change, when it is under different emission scenarios? What is the spatial-temporal connections between warming effects of anthropogenic heat release and urban thermal environment? All these questions are still unsolved. Based on the above, the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration is selected as study area. By using statistical methods, remote sensing and numerical simulation methods, spatial dataset of anthropogenic heat release from different emission source is constructed. Then it is coupled with WRF model to estimate the warming effects under different emission scenarios. Finally, the spatial-temporal connection between warming effects of anthropogenic heat release from different emission source and the urban thermal environment is obtained. This research offers an insight into the urban thermal environment management. Also, it is a good example for breaking environmental stress and provinding scientific support for sustainable and eco-healthy cities construction.

人为热即人类生产生活产生的热量，由工业排放、交通排放及生活排放构成，其作为城市能量的输入项，已成为城市升温的重要驱动力之一。现有研究已对人为热升温效应剥离及其变化特征展开了讨论。然而，如何提升人为热升温效应的剥离精度？不同排放强度下，不同排放源人为热增温效应时空变化特征如何？其与城市热环境背景值之间的时空关联如何？以上都是亟待解决的科学问题。基于以上科学问题，本研究以珠三角城市群为研究区，综合应用统计分析、遥感反演及数值模拟等方法，构建不同排放源人为热空间数据集，将其与WRF模型耦合实现不同排放源人为热增温效应剥离，明晰其时空变化特征，挖掘其与城市热环境之间的时空关联。此研究可为不同排放源人为热增温效应及其与城市热环境的交互作用范式研究提供参考。是破解环境胁迫与生态压力的可行性案例，为深入开展城市群城市生态与人居环境研究打下了基础，为城市热环境的规划管理提供了科学依据。

人为热既能源消耗产生的热量，其已成为局地气温升高的重要推手。由于现阶段人为热空间数据集时空分辨率较低，使得其增温效应的模拟存在不一致甚至相互矛盾的现象。因此，本研究结合多源时空大数据，提出构建不同排放源人为热时空数据集方法；将其与局地天气预报模式耦合，定量表征不同人为热排放背景下，其增温效应的时空动态格局；明晰人为热增温效应及气候背景值之间的时空关联。本项目通过对局地气温驱动机制的分析，揭示了能源-城市热环境的关系，有助于细化城市热环境形成机理，为准确理解“格局-过程-机理”理论框架，实现城市热环境优化提供了科学支撑。