基于多智能体的企业迁移空间决策机理研究

Enterprise Migration is a common phenomenon in China within recent years, large quantities of enterprise migration will reshape the structure of regional industrial space. The spatial decision-making of enterprise migration is a complex system, which involves the interaction of corporate, government, geographical environment, and social economy. In order to make up for the inadequacy of traditional research, this program plans to integrate spatial decision-making theories on corporate relocation, build a research framework and construct an implementation tool to analyze the spatial decision-making behavior of enterprise migration. This will base on corporate relocation theories, computer simulations, multi-agent modeling, and geographic information science. Taking the enterprises that migrate from Pearl River Delta to eastern, western, and northern Guangdong as a study case, we analyze the spatial-temporal distribution pattern of enterprise migration through the simulation of individual corporate relocation, explore the mechanism of decision-making on enterprise migration at provincial scale, and provide a new research idea to interpret enterprise migration. The main research contents are as follows: （1）the frame of spatial decision-making of enterprise migration system based on multi-agent system ; (2) analyze the type, characteristic, cause, and trend of enterprise migration in place of origin and destination; (3) construct the conceptual model of geographical simulation of enterprise migration; (4) implement the spatial simulation of enterprise migration based on multi-agent systems and GIS platforms; (5) assess the effect of industrial transfer in Guangdong province in several simulated scenarios referring to different governmental policy, thus to provide scientific basis for regional harmonious development and orderly spatial development.

企业迁移的空间决策是一个复杂的系统，涉及到企业、政府、地理环境及社会经济之间的交互作用。针对传统企业迁移研究的不足，本项目拟对企业迁移空间决策理论进行综合集成，构建基于企业迁移理论、计算机模拟、多智能体模型及地理信息科学的企业迁移空间决策行为分析框架体系及实现工具，并以珠三角地区产业向广东省内东西两翼和北部山区转移为例，模拟个体企业迁移的现象，并由此产生企业迁移的时空分布规律，探索省域尺度企业迁移空间决策的机理，为企业迁移研究提供一种新的思路。研究内容包括：①基于多智能体的企业迁移空间决策系统的框架体系；②基于理论和实证研究，探讨企业迁移空间决策的微观机理；③构建多智能体的企业迁移空间决策的地理模拟模型；④对广东省企业迁移现象进行空间模拟和模型校验；⑤模拟不同政策情境企业迁移的空间格局，对广东省产业转移效果进行评估和调控，提出合理引导企业迁移和调控产业转移的政策建议。

企业迁移是区域经济发展中的普遍现象，大量的企业迁移活动将重构区域产业空间格局。企业迁移的空间决策是一个复杂的系统，涉及到企业、政府、地理环境及社会经济之间的交互作用。针对传统企业迁移研究的不足，本研究在讨论企业迁移理论、工业区位理论、地域功能理论和复杂系统理论在企业迁移空间决策过程中的应用，提出基于多智能体方法对企业迁移空间决策理论进行综合集成，构建基于企业迁移空间决策理论的综合集成、计算机模拟、多智能体模型及地理信息科学的企业迁移空间决策行为分析框架体系。并以广东省为研究区域，模拟珠三角地区企业向广东省东西两翼和粤北山区迁移的产业空间变化格局。模拟结果的空间格局和实际情况较为接近，企业迁移的趋势具有梯度性和等级性，临近珠三角地区的区县和省内市辖区是企业迁移首选的区位，粤北山区等区县承接企业迁移潜力最差。运用智能体建模的思想来分析企业迁移的空间决策行为，能为模拟企业迁移的空间格局提供一种新的思路，对于合理引导企业迁移和制定产业转移政策提供科学依据。