考虑预防性维修的复杂产品二维保修期决策模型研究

With the increasing complexity of items structure and function, the corresponding warranty cost and difficulty increase sharply. As the important evaluation criteria of warranty service, the length of warranty period has become the critical factor influencing the satisfaction and loyalty of users. Currently, the two-dimensional warranty based on calendar time and usage time has been used in items warranty, but the influence of dependence between components of complex items is considered rarely during the decision of two-dimensional warranty period, as well as the preventive maintenance strategy. Thus, the preventive maintenance strategy is introduced into complex items warranty in the project, then the warranty strategy based on corrective maintenance is changed. For single items and multiple items considering the structure dependence, economic dependence and failure interaction, the two-dimensional warranty period models based on cost and availability are developed under the integration of corrective and preventive maintenance strategy, respectively. Then the cost and availability are analyzed quantitatively, and the decision models for warranty period considering preventive maintenance are proposed to improve the scientificity and validity of warranty period identification. The research is a frontier topic in the international field, and is an innovative study in our country. Moreover, the theory and methods of maintenance decision-making would be evidently enriched by the study, which is significant in theory as well as in reality.

随着产品结构和功能日趋复杂，相应的保修费用和难度持续提升。作为保修服务的重要评价指标，保修期的长短成为影响用户对产品满意度和忠诚度的关键因素之一。当前同时依据日历时间与使用时间对产品开展的二维保修尽管已得到一定的研究和应用，但在二维保修期决策研究中很少考虑复杂产品部件间的相关性以及预防性维修策略影响。据此，本项目把预防性维修策略引入复杂产品保修中，改变传统以修复性维修为主的保修策略，通过对单部件产品，以及具有经济相关、结构相关和故障相关的多部件复杂产品，分别建立将预防性维修与修复性维修有效集成、基于费用和可用度的二维保修期决策模型，定量分析不同保修期内的费用和可用度，提供考虑预防性维修的复杂产品保修期决策方案，以期实现产品保修决策的科学性与有效性。本研究是目前保修决策领域前沿性课题，也是国内一项创新性研究。研究成果将进一步丰富维修决策理论，具有重要的理论与现实意义。

本项目把预防性维修策略引入复杂产品保修中，系统开展了考虑预防性维修和相关性的复杂产品二维保修期决策模型研究，丰富和完善了保修决策理论。发表论文17篇（SCI收录10篇，EI收录4篇），出版专著2部，获省（部）级科技进步二等奖1项，培养博硕士研究生4名（1人获全军优秀硕士学位论文），达到了考核指标要求。.（1）构建了考虑预防性维修的复杂产品二维保修期决策模型体系。基于复杂产品二维预防性保修需求分析，构建以具有结构、经济和故障相关的复杂产品为研究对象，以保修成本、可用度和费效比为研究目标，考虑预防性维修的二维保修期决策模型体系。.（2）建立了单部件二维保修期决策模型。综合考虑产品保修成本和可用度，基于故障率回退法建立考虑定期更换和不完全预防性维修的单部件非更新二维保修期决策模型。利用非对称Copula函数描述尾部相关性故障规律，建立二维更新保修决策解析模型和仿真模型。案例分析得到相应的保修期决策方案。 .（3）建立了结构相关多部件系统二维保修期决策模型。基于复杂系统连接矩阵分析，综合考虑连接强度、部件物理属性和维修调整系数，构造拆卸操作损伤函数，构建考虑拆卸路径的结构相关多部件系统一维保修期决策模型，建立具有串联、并联、混联结构的多部件系统二维保修期决策模型。案例分析得出保修期和最优预防性维修间隔期。.（4）建立了经济相关多部件系统二维保修期决策模型。分别针对功能检测、定期更换与组合维修策略，通过计算潜在故障和功能故障概率，建立维修成本模型；引入虚拟工龄函数，运用直接构造法，建立基于不完全预防性维修的经济相关多部件系统二维保修期决策模型。案例分析验证模型的有效性和实用性。.（5）建立了故障相关多部件系统二维保修期决策模型。运用故障相关系数矩阵，构造实际故障率函数；考虑更换策略与不完全预防性维修策略，构建故障相关多部件系统二维保修期决策模型。案例分析中，综合运用数值解法和智能优化算法对模型进行优化求解。