高速铁路地震监测、预警理论与方法研究

Most high-speed railway in China is located in moderate or high intensity seismic fortification regions, and therefore one significant project with respect to earthquake disaster prevention is the running safety of high-speed trains during earthquakes. However, both theories and methods of earthquake early warning (EEW) are still in their early developing stage resulting in hardness of adopting them in face of some specific characteristics of Chinese high-speed railway and seismic environments. By analyzing related issues of EEW system in high-speed railway, this project focuses on several themes based on onsite warning of the network along railway and regional warning of the national network system. More specifically, these themes include estimationsof source parameters and final ground motion intensity based on early ground motion at observation sites along high-speed railway; effects of high-speed railway environments and predictions of final ground motion intensity distributions; running safety and counter measures of EEW in high-speed railway; schemes of earthquake monitoring and early warning system in high-speed railway. By simulating and experimentally verifying our research, we would propose some theories and methods of earthquake monitoring and early warning system which are compatible with Chinese high-speed railway. The research of this project could provide a scientific basis for establishing high-speed railway EEW system and strengthening the aseismic capacity of railway facilities.

我国高速铁路大部分位于中、高烈度地震设防区，地震时高速列车的地震安全是重要的防灾课题。但目前地震预警的理论与方法研究均处于探索性阶段，而且不能适应中国高速铁路与地震环境的特点。在分析高铁预警所面临的课题的基础上，基于铁路沿线监测网络的原位预警方式并结合国家地震台网的区域预警信息，开展基于高铁网络的早期地震动对震源参数和最终地震动强度评价研究；高速铁路环境影响和沿线最终地震动强度分布研究；高速铁路地震运行安全与预警策略研究以及高速铁路地震监测预警系统方案研究。通过对研究结果的模拟与试验验证，提出符合我国高铁地震监测、预警的理论与方法，为建立高铁地震监测预警系统，健全铁路交通设施的地震安全能力提供科学依据。

依据我国的高速铁路规模和所面临的地震危险环境，高速铁路地震安全是亟需解决的重要课题。但目前高速铁路地震预警的相关研究尚处于探索性阶段，缺乏适合我国高铁特点和地震环境的监测预警理论与方法。在分析国内外地震预警理论的发展历程和地震预警成果在高速铁路应用的基础上，总结我国高速铁路地震监测、预警所面临的课题，有针对性地开展完成了以下主要研究内容： (1) 基于高铁台站早期地震动的震源参数评价研究； (2) 基于高铁台站早期地震动的最终地震动强度评价研究； (3) 高铁环境影响和沿线最终地震动强度分布研究； (4) 高铁地震运行安全与预警指标研究； (5) 高铁地震预警系统方案与预警策略研究。通过项目实施，研究提出了符合我国高铁特点和地震环境的地震监测、预警的理论与方法，为研发建设我国高速铁路地震监测预警系统，健全铁路交通设施的地震安全能力提供了科学依据。