台阶规模边坡滑坡概率的预测方法研究

The landslide prediction is the core problem of landslide study; it contains the prediction of where and when the landslide occurs. Prediction of where the landslide occurs is to locate the unstable slope body, and the prediction of the landslide time is to determine when the landslide will occur based on the prediction of space. Because of the complexity of the landslide problem, landslide time prediction is still a worldwide problem. Most landslide catastrophe forecast models we established is belated effort. In fact, it is bench failure that frequently influence the safety of slope, also the bench failures are almost wedge failure that controlled by structural surface.. Therefore, this project puts forward a new method that to predict failure probability of slope before it formed. First of all, equivalent jointed rock masses is generated by computer simulation according to the data of scanline survey, add the geometric dimensions of the future steps many possible sliding wedge body can be find out. According to the probability distribution of shear strength of joint surface, the stability coefficients of many possible wedge sliding bodies will be calculated, so landslide probability of future slope could be obtained at last. The result of this project can be applied to the design of open pit step slope, road and railway slope, foundation ditch etc. and to predict the regular pattern of landslide before the slope is formed.

滑坡预测预报研究是滑坡研究的核心问题，它包括空间预报和时间预报两个方面, 空间预报是确定不稳定坡体所在位置, 时间预报是在空间预报的基础上确定滑坡可能发生的时间。由于滑坡问题的复杂性, 滑坡时间预报至今还是一个世界性的难题。目前建立的各种滑坡灾变预报模型大多是针对整体边坡的后验型。然而实际上频繁影响公路铁路交通安全和露天矿生产的滑坡是结构面控制的台阶规模的滑坡，并且台阶滑坡几乎都是由结构面控制的楔体滑坡。. 因此，本课题提出了针对台阶边坡的先验性的预测台阶滑坡概率的方法。首先根据蒙特卡洛模拟技术模拟产生出等效节理岩体，加入未来台阶的几何尺寸后，分离出所有可能产生滑动的楔体。根据节理面抗剪强度参数的概率分布，抽样产生节理面抗剪强度，计算台阶规模边坡的稳定系数，计算足够的样本后获得台阶规模边坡的滑坡概率。本课题的成果可用于露天矿台阶边坡、公路铁路边坡、基坑边坡等在未形成边坡之前的滑坡预测。

滑坡预测预报研究是滑坡研究的核心问题，它包括空间预报和时间预报两个方面, 空间预报是确定不稳定坡体所在位置, 时间预报是在空间预报的基础上确定滑坡可能发生的时间。由于滑坡问题的复杂性, 滑坡时间预报至今还是一个世界性的难题。目前建立的各种滑坡灾变预报模型大多是针对整体边坡的后验型。然而实际上频繁影响公路铁路交通安全和露天矿生产的滑坡是结构面控制的台阶规模的滑坡，并且台阶滑坡几乎都是由结构面控制的楔体滑坡。. 因此，本课题提出了针对台阶边坡的先验性的预测台阶滑坡概率的方法。首先根据蒙特卡洛模拟技术模拟产生出了等效节理岩体，加入未来台阶的几何尺寸后，分离出了所有可能产生滑动的楔体。根据节理面抗剪强度参数的概率分布，抽样产生节理面抗剪强度，计算台阶规模边坡的稳定系数，计算出足够的样本（1000次）后获得台阶规模边坡的滑坡概率。本课题的成果可用于露天矿台阶边坡、公路铁路边坡、基坑边坡等在未形成边坡之前的滑坡预测。