我国民生保障水平的空间维度分析：基于社会保护分析指标体系（SPI）的研究

The official report of 19th CCP National Congress clearly pointed out that the main contradiction of our society has been transformed into the contradiction between the people`s growing need for a better life and the imbalanced and inadequate development. In other words, how to reduce the development gap between regions and effectively improve the level of people's livelihood security has become an important issue in social security and other related fields. Based on this issues, we firstly draw lessons from the international social protection index systems (SPI), and actively construct an analytical framework of people's livelihood with Chinese characteristics. Secondly, using the provincial data, we will make a depth outline of the spatial distribution law of the level of people's livelihood security in China. Thirdly, using the spatial analysis method, we will make an analysis of regional linkage between livelihood security level and economic growth. Finally, according to the level of population ageing in different regions, we will make a thorough research on the spatial relationship between the level of livelihood security and the population ageing. Based on the analysis of the above issues, the significance and innovation of the research are as follows: through the localization of social protection, we would respond further to the discussion of the international academic frontier. And through in-depth analysis of the space difference, the law of development and the existing problems of the level of people's livelihood security in China, the relevant research conclusions will provide important facts and good governance inspiration for building a well-off society in an all-round way, better meeting people's growing needs of life and solving the problem of people's livelihood.

十九大报告指出，我国社会主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾。换言之，如何缩小地区间的发展差距并有效提升各地民生保障水平已经成为社会保障及相关领域的重要议题。本课题基于我国现实国情，首先借鉴国际通行的社会保护指标体系（SPI），积极构建具有中国特色的民生保障分析框架；然后采用省际数据深入研究我国民生保障水平的空间分布规律；接着采用空间分析方法，深入分析我国民生保障水平与经济增长的区域联动关系；最后针对不同地区的人口老龄化程度，深入研究民生保障水平与人口老龄化程度的空间关系。研究意义及创新点在于，通过社会保护的本土化研究，在学理上进一步回应国际学术前沿问题的思考，而且通过深入分析我国民生保障水平的空间差异、发展规律及存在问题，相关结论将为今后我国全面建成小康社会，更好满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要和解决不平衡不充分的民生问题提供重要的事实依据和启示。

民生保障制度作为保障民生福利的重要安排，在增进国民福祉和维护社会稳定方面发挥着举足轻重作用。本课题借鉴国际通行的社会保护有关理论和相关概念，从社会保护角度深入分析我国民生保障体系的现状水平及存在问题。首先借鉴亚洲开发银行提出的SPI研究方法，从社会保护视角构建出具有中国特色的民生保障评价体系。然后选取超大城市广州为例，着重围绕特大城市民生保障水平与覆盖面、配置结构及贫困聚焦三方面进行深入探讨。接着利用数型结合的研究方式，综合运用泰尔指数和空间自相关等分析方法对我国民生保障水平的空间分布规律进行深度刻画；最后利用收敛模型以及脱钩指数模型深入考察我国民生保障支出水平与经济增长（人口老龄化）的区域关系。基于相关问题探讨，本课题研究为当前我国民生保障制度改革和区域协同治理提供丰富的经验支持和政策启示，为当前社会保障制度改革给出了一定的改革方向和反思基础。