中朝俄跨境区域森林火灾时空变化过程及驱动机制研究

Dynamic characteristic, driving forces, effects and management strategies of forest fire in cross-boundary area are interdisciplinary frontier issues among geography,fire ecology, and science of disaster, which are also important to sustainable development of forest ecological resource in cross-boundary area, regions, and globe. This project plans to conduct the following studies in the China-Russia-North Korea’s cross-boundary which is critical for forest ecological security of Northeast Asia and is a key area of Northeast Asia. By combining long-term multi-sources satellite data, intensified the GCMs model from IPCC ,and FWI from GCFFDRS, we aim to (1) optimize parameters of key processes in the GCMs model with real weather data from meteorological station; (2) figure out Spatial and temporal characteristics of forest fire，burn severity of large forest fire during the past 10 years by Remote sensing data; （3）investigate the driving mechanism of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fires in the past 10 years，assess forest fires and environmental effects; (4) predict forest fire risk with future climate change in the future 80 years (2020-2100) and discuss strategies of cross-boundary forest fire management based on the outputs from model simulations. The outcome of this project could provide scientific bases in forest ecological security over Northeast Asia for policy makers. In addition, this study will promote the knowledge of cross-boundary forest fire in China and contribute to global disaster research community.

跨境地区森林火灾动态特征、发生原因、效应及管理对策是近些年国内外研究关注的焦点，是地理学、火生态学、灾害学等学科交叉的前沿性问题，对区域乃至全球跨境地区的森林生态资源可持续发展具有重要意义。本项目以东北亚地区中朝俄森林生态核心区域为研究区，利用长时间多源卫星遥感观测数据，结合气象站实测气象数据，发展和优化IPCC提出的GCMS气候情景变化模型，耦合加拿大森林火险等级系统中的火灾气候因子模块（FWI），揭示过去10年研究区森林火灾时空变化特征及大型森林火灾火烧程度；分析过去10年研究区森林火灾时空分布变化的驱动机制，评估森林火灾与环境效应；预估未来气候变化背景下该地区森林火灾风险及气候效应，探讨未来跨境地区森林火灾管理对策，为维护东北亚核心区生态系统安全提供科学依据和决策支持。本项研究对于促进我国跨境地区森林火灾研究，提升我国灾害科学研究的国际地位具有重要意义。

跨境区域森林火灾动态特征、发生原因、效应及管理对策是近些年国内外研究关注的焦点，是地理学、火生态学、灾害学等学科交叉的前沿性问题，对区域乃至全球跨境区域的森林生态资源可持续发展具有重要意义。本项目以中朝俄跨境区域为研究区，系统地开展了森林火灾时空变化过程及驱动机制研究。.项目进展主要包括以下几个方面：1.利用火热点数据对中朝俄跨境地区野火发生次数进行时空分析；2.利用MODIS以及Landsat数据提取火烧痕迹并进行时空分布特征进行分析；3.对中朝俄跨境区域大型火灾火烧强度进行分析；4.从自然和人为角度分析影响中朝俄跨境区域森林火灾的驱动力因素；5.基于气候变化情景下对中朝俄跨境区域森林火灾进行风险性评估。共发表论文4篇，培养了2名硕士研究生，项目顺利完成了预定研究任务，达到了预期目标，研究结果可为维护东北亚核心区生态系统安全提供科学依据和决策支持。