宁夏枸杞主栽品种花蕾期霜冻指标研究

As the first of five kinds of treasure, Wolfberry is the strategic leading industry for the development of Ningxia agriculture. But Ningxia is frost prone area, and sometimes the loss of spring frost is destructive, which has great influence on the development of wolfberry industry. So making the study on meteorological index of spring wolfberry would help us forecasting and early warning wolfberry frost, which would also be mitigated and avoided. It is the problem to be solved which can ensure the yield of wolfberry and the stability of famers’ incomes. This project plan to study the relations between the cold condition and temperature by indoor and outdoor experiments based on researching frost characters of wolfberry bud over the years. Then the preliminary meteorological index of wolfberry bud will be ensured, which will be test and verified applying field investigation combining historical situation. Finally accurate meteorological index of wolfberry bud will be established which provides the theoretical basis for forecasting and early warning. This research could enhance the ability of disaster professional forecasting and defense, and ensure the yield and quality of wolfberry, which has important significance for its suiting climate change and develop healthily and steadily.

枸杞作为宁夏的“五宝”之首，为宁夏农业发展的战略性主导产业。但宁夏是霜冻多发区，春季霜冻造成的损失有时是毁灭性的，对枸杞产业的发展具有较大影响。开展枸杞春季霜冻指标的研究，可有效预报、预警枸杞霜冻，减轻或避免枸杞遭受霜冻害，是确保枸杞的稳产、农民收入的稳定方面亟待解决的问题。本项目计划在研究历年枸杞花蕾期霜冻特征的基础上，通过室内、外试验确定枸杞花蕾期的过冷却点和结冰点，研究花蕾受冻状况与温度的关系，初步确定霜冻指标，并利用大田调查结合历年资料对指标进行验证，建立准确的枸杞花蕾期霜冻指标。为枸杞春季霜冻预报、预警提供基础理论依据，可提高枸杞农业气象灾害专业预报、防御能力，保障枸杞产量及品质，对枸杞产业适应气候变化并健康、稳定地发展具有极其重要的意义。

枸杞作为宁夏的“五宝”之首，为宁夏农业发展的战略性主导产业。但宁夏是霜冻多发区，春季霜冻造成的损失有时是毁灭性的，对枸杞产业的发展具有较大影响。开展枸杞春季霜冻指标的研究，可有效预报、预警枸杞霜冻，减轻或避免枸杞遭受霜冻害，是确保枸杞的稳产、农民收入的稳定方面亟待解决的问题。.项目经过四年的刻苦钻研，完成了枸杞花蕾期、初花期、盛花期霜冻过程中气温及持续时间变化特征、过冷却点和结冰点的霜冻低温范围、霜冻与温度及持续时间的关系、霜冻与危害积温的关系、霜冻指标的建立及验证、枸杞霜冻发生的时空分布及变化特征、枸杞生长季气候变化特征及其影响等研究内容。得出结论：（1）霜冻过程中最低气温日变化有明显周期性，呈单峰曲线状；一般霜冻发生的时间为清晨5：00-8：00之间，南部山区在霜冻过程中最低气温更低且持续时间更长，引黄灌区霜冻程度相对较弱。（2）花蕾期、初花期、盛花期的冷却点和结冰点分别为-9.0～-3.8℃、-8.8～-4.0℃、-8.5～-3.4℃和-6.9～-3.1℃、-5.7～-2.9℃、-5.4～-2.5℃。温度越低、持续时间越长，受冻越重。（3）建立了基于低温及持续时间的霜冻指标，轻度霜冻：0≤P1≤100%、0≤P2＜50%、0≤P3＜10%（P1、P2、P3不同时为0）；中度霜冻：0≤P1＜50%、P2≥50%、0≤0≤P3＜10%或0≤P1＜50%、0≤P2＜50%、10%≤P3＜50%；重度霜冻：0≤P1＜50%、0≤P1＜50%、P3≥50%。同时，利用受冻率与危害积温的关系，建立了基于危害积温的霜冻指标。（4）枸杞花期霜冻次数呈南北多、中间少的分布特征，1961年以来终霜日以2.1d/10y的速率提前。（5）气候暖干化是宁夏枸杞生育期气候变化的主要特征，有利于枸杞产量及品质提高，但病虫害及霜冻等极端性灾害有增加趋势。研究成果填补了枸杞霜冻研究领域的空白，可为枸杞霜冻灾害预警预报、防御、评估提供有力的科技支撑，为决策部门充分合理利用气候资源、优化种植产业布局提供基础理论依据。