TPP的困境、影响及我国的对策研究

To a certain extent, "Trans-Pacific Partnership" (TPP) negotiations are against China, for which reason the Government is highly concerned about. The United States, taking advantage of Asian countries’ security concerns, pursues high quality, wider range of members and discharge for the China strategy. It poses direct challenges to China’s attempts to actively promoting the integration of ASEAN + X model in Asia. If the world is split into hostile China-led trading blocs and US-led trading blocs, the multilateral trading system will see disastrous consequences. By developing a game model with two countries, this study will form China''s optimal strategy under certain conditions. Through the development of a theoretical model capturing network gaming, we aim to analyze the possibility if two hostile trading blocs will result in. Furthermore, the intricacies of the existing Asia-Pacific free trade agreement is investigated to see if it helps to prevent the generation of hostile trading blocs. For empirical analysis, we will utilize the gravity model and bilateral trade data for China and other major Asia-Pacific economies involved in TPP. We will examine the contents of TPP and each participant’s position, and their impacts on China''s foreign trade and the status of US in Asia''s trade. Moreover, we will study the TPP negotiations in terms of economic rationality and reality feasibility, both from the perspective of production pattern and of trade pattern. On the other hand, it is assessed and predicted whether the involvement of certain economies in TPP process will alienate their trade relations with China or not. In this way, quantitative analysis of pros and cons can be conducted regarding China’s participating or not participating in TPP negotiations. Finally, policy recommendations about China''s FTA strategy will be proposed based on the model and empirical findings in this study.

《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）谈判在相当程度上是针对中国的，政府对此高度关注。美国借助亚洲国家对安全的担忧，以质量高、包括成员范围广、排出中国为策略，直接挑战我国一直积极推动的东盟+X的亚洲一体化模式。如果世界分裂成以中美为首的敌对贸易集团将对多边贸易体制产生灾难性的影响。本研究拟通过建立双边博弈模型，回答给定条件下中国的最优策略。通过建立网络博弈模型分析中美分裂成敌对贸易集团的可能性；研究亚太地区现存的错综复杂的自贸协定是否有助于阻止敌对贸易集团的产生。本研究还将利用引力模型和双边贸易数据对中国和TPP涉及的主要亚太国家进行实证分析，并考察TPP内容及各国立场以及对中国外贸和美国在亚洲的贸易地位的影响；通过生产格局和贸易格局两个方面，考察TPP在经济上的合理性和现实中的可行性。研究特定国家加入TPP是否会疏远其与中国的贸易关系。在量化分析利弊得失的基础上，提出相关政策建议。

本课题对TPP的演进历史，困境和对我国贸易格局的影响进行了全面的调查和分析，并对我国在亚太地区如何建立自由贸易区提出了对策。具体来说，本项目主要研究了以下问题：利用双边贸易数据研究亚洲各经济体之间及与美国的贸易依存度，得出中国在“亚洲工厂”中占据重要地位的结论；根据地理距离和贸易密切程度两个指标检验了TPP-9国是否为 “天然贸易伙伴”，并使用聚类分析法对TPP成员的结构特征进行了分析，首次揭示TPP-9国成员不为“天然的贸易伙伴”；并证实TPP成员国贸易密切程度呈下降趋势，且成员结构存在复杂多样的特征性，考察TPP的经济合理性和现实可行性；最后，根据目前亚太自由贸易区格局，建立双边博弈模型，探讨在TPP成立后中国的最优策略，分析中美形成对立贸易集团的可能性，解释了目前并行的贸易一体化格局形成的原因。