岩溶隧道溶洞突涌水机理与灾害前兆实时监测预测

Real-time monitoring and early warning of water inrush mechanism and disasters is a major theoretical and technical problem in karst tunnel construction. Based on the study of water inrush from water-rich caves in karst areas and a large number of Engineering practices, this project systematically studies the mechanism of water inrush from karst tunnels and the real-time monitoring and prediction method of disaster precursors by means of theoretical analysis, model test and numerical analysis. The occurrence regularity of filling karst cave is studied, and the disaster-pregnant model and disaster-pregnant identification characteristics of filling karst cave inrush are put forward. The disaster process of karst cave inrush is studied, and the water-inrush damage model is put forward. By numerical simulation, the evolution law of multi-field information of water inrush in karst caves is studied. By normalizing the data, catastrophic analysis of multi-information is carried out, and the matching mode of precursory information of water inrush in water-proof rock mass is proposed. Based on the academic idea that "stress field changes breed catastrophe proximity and seepage field changes reflect water inrush precursor information of water-proof rock mass rupture", applying microseismic monitoring technology, using theoretical analysis, field test, numerical and physical simulation means, the water inrush precursor and monitoring method of tunnel karst cave are studied. Based on a large number of field measured data and numerical calculation data, the minimum safe thickness is proposed. Degree multiple regression equation, research and development of anti-outburst safety thickness early warning software system. The research results are of great significance for monitoring and forecasting water inrush in Karst tunnel.

突水机理与灾害实时监测预警是目前岩溶隧道施工中的重大理论与技术难题。本项目以岩溶地区富水溶洞突涌水研究为基础，以大量工程实践为依托，应用理论分析、模型试验和数值分析等手段，系统研究岩溶隧道溶洞突涌水机理与灾害前兆实时监测预测方法。研究充填型溶洞赋存规律，提出充填型溶洞突水孕灾模式和孕灾性识别特征；研究溶洞突水灾变过程，提出突水破坏模式。利用数值模拟，研究溶洞突水多场信息演化规律，并通过数据的归一化处理，对多元信息进行灾变分析，提出隔水岩体破裂突水前兆信息的匹配模式。基于“应力场变化孕育灾变临近和渗流场变化反映隔水岩体破裂突水前兆信息”的这一学术思想，应用微震监测技术，采用理论分析、现场试验、数值和物理模拟手段，研究隧道溶洞突水前兆及其监测方法；基于大量现场实测数据和数值计算数据，提出最小安全厚度多元回归方程，研发防突安全厚度预警软件系统。研究成果对于岩溶隧道溶洞突水监测与预测具有重要意义。

本项目针对岩溶隧道突水机理与灾害实时监测预警难题，采用室内试验、模型试验、数值模拟等多种手段对溶洞突涌水前兆多元信息演化规律及其灾变特征、充水溶洞突水补给通道识别与实时监测方法和溶洞突水防突安全厚度数值判定与预测预警等进行了研究。.探讨了深长隧道溶洞突水机理与实时监测方法，归纳总结了充水溶洞的赋存规律及其孕灾模式，按隔水阻泥结构类型划分了三种突水模式。采用模型试验的方法，构建了主补给通道定位与识别三维模型试验平台，验证了突水灾害补给源补给通道识别与定位的可行性。.采用FLAC3D进行数值模拟，对数据进行归一化处理，得到了突水前兆信息匹配模式。提出了一种隔水岩体结构破坏突水实时监测方案，实现突水通道定位、突水时间预警和破坏能级预测。.利用Microsoft Visual C++平台设计了一款集最小安全距离预测与突涌水灾害预警软件系统，基于数值计算结果，通过一元回归和多元回归建立了溶洞与隧道间最小安全距离预测数学模型，综合考虑了主观性和客观性，使用经典工程案例对软件系统进行了验证，其结果与现场开挖具有较高的一致性，该软件系统对隧道及地下工程施工具有实时预测、合理施工的实用价值，同时也提高了工作效率，推广性较大，研究成果对于岩 溶隧道溶洞突水监测与预测具有重要意义。