我国低碳发展战略对我国各区域在全球产业链分工的影响研究

Improving carbon productivity is the core of the low-carbon economy in China. It is also the inner necessity of ensuring the security of energy supply, and of realizing coordinated and sustainable development of the system of energy, environment and economy. This project intends to establish a new embedded multi-regional and world input-output (MREWIO) model, in which a country’s domestic interregional Input-Output (IO) table is embedded within an international IO model endogenously. Using this model, we can propose a global measuring framework of the industrial layout and production fragmentation to study Chinese regions’ roles and vertical specialization in the global production chain. And then, we are going to build a global production chain decomposition model to uncover the dependency and causality of carbon productivity and global production fragmentation. We will propose a new spatial structural decomposition analysis method to decompose the main determinants and their contributions to the change of carbon productivity. At last, we will establish a hybrid multi-objective optimization model combining with input-output technology to simulate the potential of Chinese regional energy mix and its impacts on the change of carbon productivity. We will study the influence mechanism of the change of carbon productivity on the global production chain, as well as to analyze the impacts of China’s Low Carbon Development Strategy on Chinese regions’ roles in the global production chains fragmentation from the perspective of globalization. Based on these studies, we will put forward a series of Chinese regional environmental and economic policies and suggestions to balance development among different regions and to promote China’s low-carbon economic development.

提高碳生产率是我国低碳经济发展的核心，是保障我国能源供给安全，实现能源环境经济协调可持续发展的内在要求。本项目拟建立一个对接区域间模型和全球投入产出模型的嵌入式多区域国际投入产出模型，搭建分析我国产业布局和全球产业格局联系的分析框架，评估我国各区域在全球产业链中的分工和参与程度；拟构建全球产业链分解模型，剖析碳生产率与全球产业分工格局的相关性和因果联系；拟构建空间结构因素分析模型，揭示碳生产率变化的主要影响因素及其贡献；拟建立多目标规划与投入产出结合模型，模拟区域能源结构优化潜力及对碳生产率的影响，研究碳生产率变动对全球产业链的影响机理；在全球分工和全球产业链视角下，分析我国低碳发展战略对提升我国各区域在全球产业链分工地位的影响，提出有利于我国低碳经济发展的产业政策和能源环境政策。

全球化和区域经济一体化已经引起产业分工的深度和广度不断扩大，跨地区的中间产品贸易发展迅速，产品的生产和消费环节在地理位置上分离，因此生产和消费相关的碳排放可以根据产品贸易进行转移。本项目以全球价值链和国内价值链两个视角，基于嵌入式多区域世界投入产出模型构建了碳排放效率的测算和比较方法，提出了传统贸易、全球价值链的不同参与程度下我国不同地区不同行业的碳效率及其减排路径，研究了不同排放责任下的省级减排目标（如碳强度和碳生产率目标）的分配将对各省产生不同成本效益和环境责任。结果表明，碳生产率目标的设定有利于节能减排目标的实现，同时可以进一步改善欠发达地区的能源效率。此外，隐含出口增加值与经济规模呈现正相关，具有明显的区域差异性，沿海省份以嵌入GVC为主，内陆省份以嵌入NVC为主。表现为低收入的省份在价值链嵌入程度上具有形成污染天堂的趋势，这也在一定程度上说明嵌入GVC的过程大多从事高污染行业。总体上看，沿海省份的GVC嵌入并未造成NVC割裂。碳生产率相关研究结果对GVC嵌入和NVC协调发展具有一定的价值。