异质性出口企业对宏观产出波动的影响研究

It's very important to look for the sources of Chinese aggregate fluctuations since Chinese GDP growth is much more volatile after the global financial crisis; especially pressing is the exploration of the impact of China's exporting firms on the aggregate output fluctuations in the environment of global economic fluctuations with the great trade collapse. This proposal, along the idea of Gabaix (2011)'s Granular Hypothesis, will study the microfoundation mechanism through which exporting firms have impact on aggregate fluctuations based on heterogeneous firm trade theory. We will build dynamic models to analyze the direct effects of exporting firms on China's aggregate fluctuations, and their indirect effects through the interplay with non-exporting firms in domestic market. Using this theoretic framework, we will further examine the different influence of exporting firms on aggregate fluctuations by destinations and by industries. Then by numerical simulation we will explore the role of exporting firms on aggregate fluctuations in different international environment such as the global economic crisis, the international trade disputes, etc., and provide policy advices to prevent and buffer the international negative shocks. Combining heterogeneous firm trade theory with Granular Hypotheses, this proposal will increase our understanding of the mechanism under Granular Hypothesis and provide a new perspective on aggregate fluctuations in China.

全球金融危机以来，我国宏观产出波动幅度越来越大，寻找宏观产出波动的来源具有重要意义；在全球经济大幅波动并伴随贸易大崩溃的国际环境下，研究出口企业动态对我国宏观产出波动的影响显得尤为迫切。本项目拟沿Gabaix（2011）提出的颗粒状假设（Granular Hypothesis）思路，在异质性企业贸易理论基础上研究微观出口企业对我国宏观产出波动的影响机制。我们将建立动态模型从理论上分析出口企业对我国宏观产出波动的直接效应及其通过非出口企业对宏观产出波动带来的间接效应；然后以此为基本框架进行全国总体和分目的地、分行业的考察分析，并数值模拟不同的国际环境如全球经济危机、国际贸易争端等情景下出口企业对宏观产出波动的不同作用，提出我国预防和应对国际冲击的政策建议。本项目研究将异质性企业贸易理论与颗粒状假设相结合，可以加深我们对颗粒状假设内在机制的理解，为我国宏观产出波动提供新的分析视角。

在项目组全体成员共同努力和各级领导的支持下，本项目顺利完成了预期目标。本项目在异质性企业贸易理论基础上研究微观企业对我国宏观产出波动的影响机制，运用微观企业数据从不同角度详细分析了我国出口的特征，并将其与我国国内经济增长、地区发展差距相联系。本项目的研究为进一步深入理解我国我国出口企业的出口行为和进入退出动态机制及其对国内区域和整体经济发展的影响有一定的重要意义，为稳定我国宏观经济波动和促进区域经济平衡发展的政策制定将会起到一定的积极作用。在项目资助下，项目负责人和成员在《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《世界经济》等国内期刊和SSCI 期刊发表7篇论文，项目负责人指导研究生发表相关论文4篇。