粮食主产区职业粮农形成路径、行为选择与政策优化研究--以江西为例

This research aims to study the behavior of the microcosm main body –.farmers who produce the grain in the grain production areas，by adopting theories of professional division of labor and economies of scale, the possible path logic of the professional farmers in planting rice under agriculture division and farmers differentiation is probed into. In this research xtLogit, xt Probit Model are used to analyze the farmers’ managing behavior in grain producing and its affecting factors; Hierarchical Linear Model is used to analyze the planting performance made by different kinds of farmers and its working mechanism; and based on the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), it will set up an empirical model of the farmers’ decision-making behavior. It will continuously survey such typical cases as grain mass-production and family farm to discover the regional factors which affect the formation of professional farmers in order to increase the grain harvest in the grain production areas and improve people’s life, as well as form a mechanism of the professional farmers that can help transfer land reasonably, choose planting model rationally, improve the policy system and complete the supporting policy systems greatly to help the government make right decisions.

本项目以粮食主产区粮食生产微观经济主体—农户为研究对象，运用专业分工和规模经济理论，探讨农业分工、农户分化背景下职业粮农形成的可能路径逻辑；利用xtLogit、 xt Probit 模型分析，探讨职业粮农稻作经营行为选择及其主要影响因素；运用多层线性模型，分析不同规模类型农户粮食生产的绩效差异及其机理；利用应用结构方程模型（SEM），构建粮农职业化选择行为决策的实证模型；并以典型个案（种粮大户或家庭农场）跟踪调查分析为重要依据，构建以主产区粮食持续增产、民生持续改善为目标，土地有序流转、农户理性选择、政策体系健全的职业粮农形成机制，为政府决策提供参考。

本项目以粮食主产区粮食生产微观经济主体—农户为研究对象，运用专业分工和规模经济理论，探讨农业分工、农户分化背景下职业粮农形成的可能路径逻辑。基于江西省1240份粮农数据，运用有序probit模型分析“钱”和“面子”对粮农的职业农民意愿的影响。结果表明，“钱”和“面子”对粮农的职业农民意愿具有显著的影响，“面子”对粮农的职业农民意愿的影响显著性更强，并且粮农加入合作社有助于其职业农民意愿的提升。基于江西农户调研数据，构建农民职业化意愿模型，将社会网络、职业自我效能感和风险感知等要素纳入模型的概念框架，利用结构方程模型与层级回归分析方法，对所提出的模型与假设进行了实证检验与分析。研究结果表明：社会网络对农民职业化意愿具有显著的正向影响；职业自我效能感在社会网络与农民职业化意愿的关系间存在中介作用；风险感知在社会网络与农民职业化意愿的前半段关系间起到了有调节的中介作用。用有序logistic模型探究了不同兼业程度下机械化投入程度对农户水稻种植规模决策意愿的影响。结果表明，稻农兼业导致的劳动力流失对农户扩大经营规模的意愿普遍带来的是消极影响；就兼业程度较低的纯农户和一兼农户来看，机械化生产程度越高越倾向于扩大经营规模；相反，二兼农户和非农户等兼业程度较高的农户并不倾向于提高机械化投入来维持或扩大现有水稻生产经营规模，且二兼农户的不种倾向行为表现显著。基于行动前不可缔约而事后可缔约的事前效率问题不完全合同理论模型，以返乡农民凌继河牵头组建的江西绿能公司为例进行合同缔约机制解析，来验证促进新型农业经营主体经营效率提升的存在。. 根据以上研究，构建以主产区粮食持续增产、民生持续改善为目标，土地有序流转、农户理性选择、政策体系健全的职业粮农形成机制，为政府决策提供参考依据。