新常态下珠江三角洲地区城镇的增长与收缩研究

Following a period of sustained global financial crisis, a parallel but opposite phenomenon of regional growth and shrinkage is emerging in the Pearl River Delta, where is the representative of Chinese fast urbanizing regions. Under the analytical framework of “endogenous development model” oriented from the new growth theory, this research endeavors to understand such spatial pattern, evolutionary process and formation mechanism in the perspective of global transformation and it’s resulting distinctive response of local development, which necessitates a comparison between domestic and international related research to extract the influence factors and represent spatial process of regional growth and shrinkage phenomenon. The empirical research consists of three parts. The first part basically adopts statistical and spatial econometric approach in the support of a dataset covering statistical yearbooks, economic census, population census, mobile phone user data and remote lighting data. Then by drawing on endogenous growth model consisting of key indicators such as the number of newly invented products and human capital we can identify the factors affecting the development of growth and shrinkage cities and towns. The third part of empirical research is case study about typical areas, such as Shenzhen, Dongguan and Shunde, these attribute to the advices on the transformation of development policy and planning policy. Altogether, this research provides valuable blueprint to the following researches on development routes of fast urbanizing regions in post-financial crisis era, and should also offer some vital references to policy maker when making transformation countermeasure in fast urbanizing regions under the ‘new normal’ circumstances.

全球金融危机后，作为快速城镇化地区典型的珠江三角洲出现了城镇增长与收缩两种截然不同的现象。本研究课题尝试以基于新增长理论的“内生式发展”模式为分析框架，从全球化条件变化与地方发展要素响应不同路径的视角，对珠江三角洲城镇发展的增长与收缩的空间格局、演变过程和形成机制进行研究，并进行国内外研究的比较，尝试找到快速城镇化地区同时出现增长与收缩的影响因素和空间影响过程。本研究采用城市统计年鉴、经济普查、人口普查等数据，辅以手机用户数据和遥感灯光数据，进行统计和空间计量分析模型，借鉴内生增长模型，引入新产品数量、人力资本等指标对发展差异的影响因素进行判断，并对深圳、东莞、顺德等典型地区的调查进行案例分析，针对性地提出促进增长转型政策和规划的应对。本研究为快速城镇化地区在后金融危机时代的发展路径变化的研究提供良好的样本，可以为新常态下快速城镇化地区的转型对策的制定提供重要的参考。

金融危机后，快速城镇化下的珠三角区域开始出现城镇增长与收缩并存的新现象。本课题以新增长理论下的“内生式增长”为理论基础，以技术进步为核心结合人力资本、社会资本、自然资本等核心要素，构建了珠江三角洲地区城市增长与收缩的研究框架，探讨了珠江三角洲城镇产业转移、外来人口迁移、技术创新的传导机制，分析了“后危机”时代珠三角增长与收缩所形成的空间格局、演变历程及形成机制。本课题主要基于中国城市统计年鉴、全国经济普查、全国人口普查的传统统计数据以及手机用户信令、遥感灯光等大数据，以深圳、东莞、顺德等典型地区为案例，横向上对比国际研究刻画了快速城市化地区出现“增长与收缩”的内生动力和外生动力相互作用的过程，纵向上分析了本地市场与政府等要素对金融危机响应的路径差异、增长与收缩的空间格局与演化特色等，提出了促进城镇转型增长的策略建议，并探讨了快速城市化地区分区管治构建的过程，为研究新常态下快速城镇化地区的城市发展提供研究范本、为地方政府转型对策的制定提供参考。