多元不确定环境下微网群和配电网动态自适应鲁棒优化方法研究

Future distribution networks are expected to be a combination of multiple microgrids. The increasing proliferation of distributed energy resources, flexible loads and electricity market strategies have brought complexity and various uncertainties in the coordinated operation of microgrids and distribution networks. The traditional deterministic optimization strategy and empirical decision-making systems are no longer applicable for the coordinated optimization problem with multi-uncertainty and dynamic interest relations of multi-subjects. Based on multi-uncertainty analysis and multi-subject game, a dynamic adaptive robust optimization strategy for microgrids and distribution networks has been proposed in this research. Firstly, the coupling characteristics of multi-uncertainty will be analyzed to carry out the typical uncertain scenario set. Secondly, a robust optimization strategy, consideration both optimizing performance and risk resistance, will be constructed to improve the adaptability to complex uncertainties. Finally, a dynamic robust game strategy will be proposed for microgrids and distribution networks with multiple participators in continuous dynamic environment, and the feasibility of the proposed approach will be testified based on simulation platform. The outcome of this research will support the secure, economical and coordinated operation of microgrids and distribution networks, promote the energy efficiency and low-carbon economy development.

由多微网互联构成微网群被认为是未来智能配电网的主要形态。其中，分布式电源和柔性负荷的广泛接入，电力市场机制的开放，使得微网群和配电网协调运行的复杂性和不确定性显著增加。传统的确定性优化方法和经验型决策体系已不再适用于存在多元不确定性、多主体利益关系动态变化的协调优化决策中。基于此，本项目以多元不确定性和多主体博弈为出发点，提出微网群和配电网动态自适应鲁棒优化方法。首先，研究多元不确定内在融合特性，构建微网典型不确定场景集合；其次，提出兼顾优化性能和抗风险能力的鲁棒优化策略，采用自适应鲁棒优化方法提升决策对复杂不确定环境的适应能力；最后，提出适用于连续动态环境和多主体参与下的微网群和配电网动态鲁棒博弈方法，并基于仿真平台验证所提方法的可行性。研究成果将为未来微网群和配电网的安全、经济、协调运行提供保障，促进能源高效利用、节能减排和低碳经济的发展。

本项目针对多元不确定环境下微网群和配电网动态自适应鲁棒优化方法开展研究，取得了如下几方面的研究成果。.1）揭示了微网内源荷多元不确定内在相关性，提出了广义椭球不确定集建模方法和综合评价方法。相较于盒式集合、多面体集合和高维椭球集合，能够以更小的体积覆盖更多不确定场景，实现对源荷不确定性的精确刻画；.2）建立了基于数据驱动的微网自适应鲁棒优化模型，结合最新预测结果自适应修正不确定场景的实现，克服传统鲁棒优化方法过于保守的问题，同时相比于随机优化方法具有更强的低样本适应性，实现决策方案鲁棒性和经济性的均衡；.3）提出了基于多智能体矩阵博弈的微网群与配电网协调优化方法，采用WoLF-PHC算法实现多主体博弈均衡的分布式求解，兼顾多主体利益、信息隐私和收敛速度，实现微网群与配电网的互济支撑；.4）提出了计及源荷不确定性的节点边际定价机制，基于鲁棒机组组合和经济调度模型，建立反映能量边际成本和备用边际成本的节点边际电价，实现对多元主体不确定性的有效管理；.5）首次提出了计及输-配-微多级协调的配电节点边际不确定性定价机制，考虑输-配-微多级主体决策行为的交互影响，实现备用成本在多级电网、多元主体之间的有效疏导，为挖掘微网降低系统备用的价值、指导微网（群）参与输配市场奠定了理论依据。.相关研究成果为实现微网群与配电网的协调互动和经济运行提供了重要的理论与方法支撑，为引导微网（群）可持续健康发展和商业运营模式的建立提供了参考方向，具有重要的科学意义与应用价值。