库岸堆积层滑坡空间发育特征及变形预测研究

Deformation prediction of reservoir colluvial landslides is significant for landslide monitoring, early warning and assessment, which is based on the theory of landslide development, evolution and occurrence. In this project, reservoir colluvial landslides along mainstreams of the Three Gorges Reservoir area are selected as study objects. Landslide developmental characteristics, spatial-temporal distribution and disaster intensity as well as the response relationship and change rules between typical landslide disasters and their environmental factors is analyzed using geological survey data and multi-source monitoring data. A variety of quantitative prediction theories and computational intelligence models are combined to construct the conceptual model and quantitative representation of landslide prediction, to establish reliable prediction criteria and accurate deformation prediction methods. The research results of the project are expected to provide theoretical basis and advanced methodological support for the prevention, monitoring and early warning of landslide disasters in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and other regions.

库岸堆积层滑坡变形预测是滑坡灾害监测、预警和评估的关键，是以滑坡发育、演化和发生的理论为出发点。本项目选取三峡库区长江干流库岸堆积层滑坡为研究对象，在分析滑坡地质勘查和多源监测资料基础上，分析滑坡发育特征、时空分布、灾害强度及滑坡变形破坏模式与其环境因素之间的响应关系，进而将定量预测理论与机器学习模型相结合，构建滑坡预测的概念模型和定量表征，建立可靠的变形判据和准确的变形预测方法。本项目的研究成果有望为三峡库区和国内外滑坡地质灾害防治与监测预警提供理论依据和方法学支持。

随着经济社会建设的高速发展和人类活动空间范围的逐渐拓展，一些国家重大工程相继在地质条件复杂、滑坡等灾变地质灾害多发的地区规划、建设，加剧或引发新的滑坡灾害，严重威胁工程安全和环境安全。三峡工程库区堆积层滑坡广泛发育且频繁发生，是我国重大地质灾害防治工作的典型示范区。库岸堆积层滑坡变形预测是滑坡灾害监测、预警和评估的关键，是以滑坡发育、演化和发生的理论为出发点。基于此，本项目选取三峡库区长江干流库岸堆积层滑坡为研究对象，在分析滑坡地质勘查和多源监测资料基础上，分析滑坡发育特征、时空分布、灾害强度及滑坡变形破坏模式与其环境因素之间的响应关系，进而将各种定量预测理论与机器学习模型相结合，构建滑坡预测的概念模型和定量表征，建立可靠的变形判据和准确的变形预测方法。本项目的研究成果有望为三峡库区和国内外滑坡地质灾害防治与监测预警提供理论依据和方法学支持。