蓝色粮仓背景下考虑生态环境约束的我国海水养殖业效率测度、发展模式与优化路径研究

The construction of blue granary is an important strategy to cope with the pressure of food security in China. Facing the current depletion of fishery resources and the serious external ecological environment of the Chinese aquaculture development, to constantly improve the efficiency of mariculture considering the constraint of the ecological environment become the priority to implement the blue granary strategy. This project combines with the input-output analysis of mariculture, considering the ecological environment pollution as the undesirable output into the efficiency analysis framework, then constructs SFA and DEA efficiency measurement model to measure the efficiency of mariculture with consideration to undesirable output. The coordination degree model is constructed to estimate coordinated degree of economy and ecological environment of mariculture，then the developping mode of the mariculture of China at different stages is evaluated from the perspective of combining efficiency (resource conservation) and effect(ecological environment friendly) . Further the econometric model of the influence factors to efficiency and coordination degree under ecological environmental restriction is constructed to determine the key factors. According to the empirical results and combined with the development experience of mariculture advanced countries, this paper designs the optimum path to optimize our aquaculture industry. Finally, some measures are proposed to enhance the optimum path.

建设蓝色粮仓是我国应对粮食安全压力的重要战略，面对渔业资源枯竭和我国海水养殖业严重的生态环境外部性现状，不断提升考虑生态环境约束下海水养殖业效率是实施蓝色粮仓战略的关键要点。本课题将生态环境污染作为非期望产出纳入效率分析框架，构建基于SFA和DEA的考虑非期望产出的效率测度模型，对生态环境约束下我国海水养殖业效率进行测度，并对其时空演化特征进行分析。针对效率分析未能深入分析海水养殖业生态环境产出和经济产出之间相互关系的不足，构建协调度模型对经济和生态环境协调度进行测算，将效率视角（资源节约程度）与效果视角（经济与生态环境友好程度）结合作为评价标准，对我国海水养殖业发展模式进行评价。进一步构建计量经济模型分析确定影响我国海水养殖业效率和协调度的关键环节与因素，结合先进国家海水养殖业发展的经验借鉴，确定我国海水养殖业优化发展的路径。最后分析提出我国海水养殖业优化路径实施的若干对策建议。

耕海牧渔、大力发展海水养殖业是构建蓝色粮仓、增强国家粮食安全保障的关键，由于我国海水养殖业的发展是以巨大的资源和生态环境污染为代价的，故在海洋生态环境约束下不断提高海水养殖业的效率是发展的唯一路径。课题首先对蓝色粮仓背景下生态环境约束下海水养殖业效率基本理论进行梳理，对已有的各种效率概念及关系进行辨析，对非期望产出、海水养殖业资本存量进行科学核算。其次，运用规模报酬不变（CRS）下的投入导向型、Seiford线性、全局DEA 模型、DEA-Malmquist指数、SBM模型、EBM-GML模型等非参数的数据包络分析方法和运用超越对数生产函数形式的参数SFA方法构建生态环境约束下我国海水养殖业效率测度模型；将非期望产出纳入海水养殖业效率投入产出指标中，构建了符合实际、科学规范的投入产出指标体系，对海水养殖业的效率值进行了测度；通过对中国沿海省市实证研究，分析了生态环境约束下我国海水养殖业、养殖海域效率时空变化特征，并运用ML指数、空间Morans’I指数和三种收敛模型分析了中国水产养殖效率的动态变化、空间聚集和收敛性。再次，在对效率进行全面测度的基础上，从海水养殖业经济产出和生态环境产出两个角度综合考虑，采用Tapio脱钩弹性指数，从时间和区域两个维度对中国海水养殖业生态经济耦合关系进行测度，得出省域层面的生态经济耦合关系差异巨大的结论，并划分了弱脱钩型发展型、无序波动型发展型、耦合关系改善型发展型、耦合关系恶化型发展型四种海水养殖业发展模式。最后，运用空间Durbin模型、Tobit模型、可行广义最小二乘（FGLS）等方法，对影响海水养殖业效率的主要因素进行研究，并在此基础上结合我国海水养殖业现实情况，设计生态环境约束下我国海水养殖业优化路径，具体包括海域评估、政策法规、环境保护、推广设施、养殖结构、养殖规模、地区合作等多方面优化路径。