基于时空可达性的多模式公交网络中出行者活动及出行行为研究

In densely populated urban areas of China, a large proportion of trips are made by various transit modes. Individuals conduct activities and travels under space-time constraints in congested multi-modal transit networks. The space-time accessibility of activity locations is one of the key concerns in individuals’ activity and travel choice behavior. With the travel behavior modeling based on space-time accessibility, the impacts of space-time constraints on individuals’ activity and travel choice behavior can be explicitly modeled, and the space-time distribution of traffic flow in multi-modal transit network can be intensively investigated. Thus, to obtain a better understanding of individuals’ activity and travel choice behavior in multi-modal transit networks, the proposed project aims at modeling activity and travel choice behavior based on space-time accessibility of activity locations. The proposed project is on the basis of operations research, systems science, and travel behavior theories. Network equilibrium models and optimization models will be developed with taking account the travel time uncertainty in congested multi-modal transit networks. The proposed project is a complement to previous activity-based travel behavior studies. The results of the project will help transport planners understand individuals’ decision-making mechanism under space-time constraints. The application of the proposed models also holds great promise for evaluation and optimization of multi-modal transit networks.

在我国人口密集的城市地区，人们的日常出行很大程度上依赖于多模式公交系统。在拥挤的多模式公交网络中，出行者的活动与出行都受到时空的约束，因此出行者的活动及出行行为与活动地点的时空可达性紧密相关。基于时空可达性的出行者行为研究能明确地模拟活动地点的时空可达性对出行者活动及出行行为的影响，从而准确地揭示多模式公交网络中交通流的时空分布。本项目立足多模式公交网络中出行者的活动行为决策与出行行为决策，综合运用交通运筹理论、系统科学、行为科学等知识，拟提出一套完整的基于时空可达性的出行者活动及出行行为模拟理论，考虑行程时间不确定等因素，建立基于时空可达性的多模式公交网络均衡模型及优化模型。本项目的研究是对现有基于出行者活动的交通模拟理论的重要补充，对于揭示时空约束条件下的活动与出行决策机制、完善城市多模式公交网络的优化与评价方法具有重要的理论价值和实践指导意义。

本项目立足多模式公交网络中出行者的活动行为决策与出行行为决策，综合运用了交通运筹理论、系统科学、行为科学等知识，提出了一套完整的基于时空可达性的出行者活动及出行行为模拟理论，考虑行程时间不确定等因素，建立了基于时空可达性的多模式公交网络均衡模型及优化模型。本项目的研究是对现有基于出行者活动的交通模拟理论的重要补充，对于揭示时空约束条件下的活动与出行决策机制、完善城市多模式公交网络的优化与评价方法具有重要的理论价值和实践指导意义。.具体研究成果如下：.1) 提出了考虑行程时间不确定性的时空可达性度量方法，基于真实数据，针对不同交通模式分析了出行者的风险规避行为，为城市多模式交通规划和土地利用布局提供了有效依据及评价指标。.2) 构建了多模式时空活动超级网络，模拟了考虑时空可达性的出行者活动及出行行为，建立了网络均衡模型。.3) 从时空可达性的角度出发，提出了多模式交通网络双层优化模型。上层优化交通网络以最大限度地提升活动地点的时空可达性，下层采用提出的网络均衡模型来反应人们的出行及活动选择行为。