面向客户化定制的多部件产品柔性延长质保理论研究

Existing extended warranty contracts have not considered customer's individualized demand, and the diversities including multi-component products’ performance, using environment, failure mechanism and their maintenance during basic warranty period are also neglected. It has seriously weakened the customer stickiness of extended warranty. In this project, the multi-component products including automobiles and wind turbines are selecting as object, the data mining techniques are used to analyze customers’ individual requirements, parts’ performance, usage patterns, failure mechanism and maintenance history in the period of basic warranty. Aiming to make decision for flexible extended warranty, the dependency among multiple components are considered, the maintenance for single component and multiple components, and joint optimization of maintenance policies with warranty decision will be carried out, thus customised maintenance policies are obtained. The game theory is applied to establish the models for warranty cost and profit analysis, dynamic and cooperative game will be used, so that the effect of factors including customers’ individual needs, warranty purchasing date, products’ usage mode, maintenance policy, and supply of spare parts, etc on warranty cost are evaluated. The pricing mechanisms of flexible extended warranty will be studied so as to achieve win-win situation for both of manufacturers and customers. Furthermore, the prototype software system for flexible extended warranty decision-making and management will be developed. The research content is an integrated innovation of the thought of customization and extended warranty theory, it perfectly reflects the idea of personized customization service and precision marketing, and it also conforms with the national manufacturing development strategy. The realization of the above objectives will expand the methodology of extended warranty efficiently, and so as to promote the change of warranty service operation mode for domestic mechanical and electrical products.

现有的延长质保模型未考虑顾客个性化需求，忽视基本质保期内多部件产品在性能状态、使用环境、故障、维修的差异性，消弱了延长质保的客户黏性。项目以汽车、风力机等多部件产品为对象，利用数据挖掘技术分析基本质保期中顾客、产品性能、使用模式、故障与维修等数据统计规律；以柔性延长质保决策为目标，考虑零部件相关性，开展单部件维修、多部件维修、延长质保与维修策略联合优化，实现维修策略的定制化；采用博弈理论构建延长质保成本与收益分析的动态、合作博弈模型，评估顾客偏好、质保购买时间、使用模式、维修策略、备件等选项与质保成本的相关性，研究柔性延长质保定价机制，实现制造商和顾客双赢；开发柔性延长质保决策与管理原型软件系统。项目研究内容是客户化定制和延长质保理论的集成与创新，完美体现个性化定制服务和精准营销理念，符合制造强国发展战略。研究目标的实现将有效拓展延长质保的方法体系，推动我国机电产品质保服务运作模式的变革。

经济全球化和信息技术的成熟激发了顾客的个性化需求，制造企业间的竞争空前激烈，纷纷由以产品核心向产品-服务系统（PSS）转变。通过为提供顾客提供差异化、定制化的产品及质保、维修、备件服务建立新的竞争优势，提高产品附加值、提升企业利润。2015年国务院在《中国制造2025》中将“积极发展服务型制造和生产性服务业”列为战略任务，并提出推动发展服务型制造，加快生产性服务业发展等战略举措。本项目响应国家发展战略，以汽车、风力机、工程机械等多部件机电产品为对象，开展定制化质保与维修理论研究，以期弥补现有质保理论、模型不足，形成与产品定制化设计/制造相适应、相促进的柔性化质保理论。.项目完成的研究工作主要包括：（1）考虑学习效应和预防性维修的可用度质保决策理论研究 建立可用度质保和预防性维修模型，分析学习效应与质保成本相关性。（2）面向柔性质保决策的可靠性评估、寿命预测与维修决策方法研究 。（3）基于Pareto理论的多目标优化算法及其应用研究，基于Pareto理论建立多目标优化模型，提出TS-NSGA II混合算法等新的多目标优化算法。（4）基于SCADA数据的国产国产风力机可靠性评估，研究环境温度和风力机故障率的相关性。（5）风力机单部件和多部件维修优化研究 分别建立可用度约束条件下的风力机单部件顺序维修优化模型和多部件机会维修优化模型，采用遗传算法完成模型求解。（6）面向工程装备可用度的质保理论研究 开展可用度质保与维修决策优化研究、开展基于可用度的维修服务合同设计，建立起涵盖基本可用度质保和维修服务合同的两阶段质保模型。（7）以风力机为对象，研究维修和备件库存的联合决策与优化问题。（8）可更新质保策略研究 以降低制造商更新质保成本为目标，通过增加质保截止期、维修次数阈值等限制性条件，形成新的组合更新质保策略。（9）开展多阶段、考虑停机损失的柔性质保理论研究。.本项目已培养可靠性工程、质保决策与维修决策领域硕士研究生10人、博士研究生1人，现有在校博士研究生2人、硕士研究生5人；发表研究论文34篇，其中期刊论文25篇、会议论文9篇，SCI检索论文11篇、EI检索论文31篇。研究生王晓林的毕业论文被评为2017年江苏省优秀学术学位硕士学位论文。.研究内容能促进客户化定制思想和延长质保理论的集成创新，有效拓展柔性延长质保方法，有望推动多部件机电产品质保服务运作模式变革与创新。