自治微电网柔性规划建模研究

The increasing depletion of fossil energy and the problem of environmental pollution have seriously hindered the development of the civilization of human society and its economy. Therefore, with photovoltaic, wind power and other renewable generation as components of micro grid, which has clean and high efficiency advantages, have attracted more and more attention in the world. Presently, the main problem of the micro grid planning is adaptability modeling, moreover, the relative research has not carried on. The research is to establish autonomy micro grid flexible planning model including the following main content. Research on all kinds of micro power generation coordination mechanism and solve the problem of optimal capacity allocation; Research on evaluation model and method of comprehensive social loss quantification while power off; Research on micro power grid construction sequence modeling based on complex network theory under condition of initial and target network; To reveal micro grid load demand response mechanism by different incentive and establish the micro grid load time& spatial evolution model; To construct autonomous micro power grid planning flexible comprehensive evaluation index hierarchy and propose evaluation method. This project taking flexible modeling of micro power grid planning as feature is helpful supplement for the power grid planning theory.

化石能源日趋枯竭、环境污染问题严重制约了当前人类社会文明和经济的发展，含光伏、风电等可再生电源组成的微电网具有清洁、高效等优点并在世界范围内受到了越来越多的关注。目前微电网规划适应性问题比较突出，尚未发现自治微电网规划柔性建模研究。本项目以自治微电网电源、网架、负荷三要素为研究对象，建立自治微电网柔性规划模型为目标，研究各类微电源发电出力特性配合机理，解决其容量优化配置问题；研究微电网风、光等时间出力特性及负荷曲线时间关联关系的可靠性计算方法；研究电网停电社会综合损失量化评估模型及方法；研究初始网架、目标网架双边界条件下基于复杂网络理论微电网网架建设时序模型； 揭示不同激励机制条件微电网负荷需求响应机制，建立微电网负荷时空演化模型；提出自治微电网规划方案柔性综合评估指标体系及评估方法。本项目以微电网规划的柔性建模为特色，是电网规划理论体系的有益完善和补充。

本项目研究内容包括研究各类微电源发电出力特性配合机理，解决其容量优化配置问题；研究微电网风、光等时间出力特性及负荷曲线时间关联关系的可靠性计算方法；研究初始网架、目标网架双边界条件下基于复杂网络理论微电网网架建设时序模型；揭示不同激励机制条件微电网负荷需求响应机制，建立微电网负荷时空演化模型；提出自治微电网规划方案柔性综合评估指标体系及评估方法。. 本项目研究重要结果包括：揭示了不同激励机制条件微电网负荷需求响应机制，建立微电网负荷时空演化模型，提出自治微电网规划方案柔性综合评估指标体系及评估方法；分析系统建模方法和建立微电网柔性规划模型的影响因素，把自治微电网柔性规划模型分解为柔性电源规划模型，柔性网架规划模型及柔性负荷模型，为建立自治微电网规划模型提供理论支撑和技术支持。. 本项目研究的科学意义在于解决微电网规划中分布式电源不确定性问题；有利于清洁能源的高效利用；电网规划理论体系的有益完善和补充；有利于自治微电网协调规划。