耦合生态流量情势的水库调度建模及自适应调控

As a new methodology of reservoir operation, the reservoirs operation including economical and ecological requirements is still in an exploratory stage both theoretically and practically. Several unresolved issues need to be addressed: (1) How to specifically identify and evaluate ecological objective in a highly disturbed river ecosystem; (2) How to establish reservoir operation models considering economical objective and ecological objective as well as to obtain compromise solutions. Facing the challenge of ecological protection in reservoir operation in current China, this study first explores the influences of reservoir regulation on river ecology and the societey. Second, an ecological flow regime is characterized based on a flow-ecology response relationship and an ecological flow hydrograph is reconstructed through multiple approaches. Then, coupling experiments involving multiple objectives, multiple time scales and combination of three kinds of model including deterministic model, fuzzy model and stochastic model are performed, based on which multiobjective reservoir operation models with a concern for the ecological flow regime can be built and optimized. Finally, regulation rules and an adaptive control module addressing the variations of inflow regime and the ecological requirement are presented. The project proposed can enrich the theory of eco-friendly reservoir operations and provide theoretical basis and technical support for its implementation.

耦合生态目标和经济目标的水库调度是一种新近出现的水库调度模式，无论是理论上还是实践上均处于探索阶段，还存在亟待解决的若干关键科学问题，如：1）面对的高度改变的河流生态系统，如何更清晰辨识和度量生态目标；2）如何建立耦合生态与经济目标的水库调度模型并进行均衡优化。本项目从我国水库调度面临的生态保护问题出发，探讨水库调度对河流生态和经济社会的作用机理和影响机制，基于流量-生态响应关系分析，提取生态流量情势特征，采用多种方法构建生态流量过程；开展目标耦合、时间尺度耦合及确定性模型与模糊模型、随机性模型的耦合研究，建立含生态流量情势的多重耦合的多目标水库调度模型，发展相应的优化方法；面对变化的入流情势和生态要求，开展水库调度规则和自适应调控模式、方法研究。通过本项目研究，将丰富生态友好型水库调度的理论与方法，为实施调度提供理论方法基础和技术支撑。

平衡经济社会需水和生态环境需水的要求是生态友好型水库调度的根本特征。针对生态友好型水库调度面临的问题，本项目开展了一系列研究。首先探讨了河流流量情势与生态环境和经济发展相互关系，提取了鱼类产卵期的典型流量场景，构建了鱼类产卵期概化的洪水脉冲过程，提出了可反映年内年际变化的河流生态需水过程,发展了水文流量波动识别方法和河流整体水文改变度度量方法。其次，探讨了生态目标的不同表达形式，建立了耦合生态流量情势的水库调度模型，包括：鱼类产卵期耦合生态流量情势的水库调度单目标和多目标模型；面向发电、供水、生态要求的水库群多目标优化调度模型；及耦合短期（日）调峰模式的梯级电站长期发电调度模型和基于调峰出力随机分布的梯级电站调峰期望效益模型；再次，概括提出了水库自适应调度的一般程序，探讨了生态目标对调度期来水状况的适应机制，建立了适应来水和生态需水变化的水库调度规则。. 此外，还提出了一种基于量维和形维的出力波动量化评估方法，建立了水-风-光系统协调运行的多目标模型，探索了水电在增加发电和减缓出力波动中的作用，分析了协调运行对系统之间电力交换以及水文情势的影响。. 研究成果丰富了生态友好型水库调度的理论与方法，可为实施调度提供技术支撑，具有广泛的应用前景。