中国的人口、人口转变和经济增长

Population and the demographic transition have become the key issue in China's society and economy, therefore, it is very important to explore and understand its change trend, mechanism and effects on economic growth. First, we will use the new econometric approach to measure and forecast China's population, and mechanism and trend of demographic transition; Secondly, on the basis of "unified growth theory", we will build up models which conform to China’s economic development stage and characteristics of the demographic transition to study the mechanism linking demographic transition and economic growth in China and to explain China's economic growth stage and its transformation. Using Multi-period Overlapping Generation (OLG) model, we will analyze the impacts of population aging, low birth rate and fertility policy on economic growth. Finally, in view of our country facing the potential population crisis and economic stalling risk, we will put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.

人口以及人口转变已成为中国经济社会中的核心而关键的问题，探索和理解其变动趋势、机制以及对经济增长的影响十分重要。首先，我们将利用新的计量方法，分析和预测我国人口、人口转变的机制和趋势；其次，以“统一增长理论”为基础，构建符合我国经济发展阶段和人口转变特征的模型，从较长的时间跨度研究我国人口转变和经济增长的关联机制，解释我国经济增长的阶段及转换；利用多阶段代际交叠模型（OLG），分析老龄化、少子化和生育政策对经济增长的影响；最后，针对我国所面临的潜在人口危机和经济失速，提出具有针对性的对策建议。

人口以及人口转变已成为中国经济社会中的核心而关键的问题，探索和理解其变动趋势、机制以及对经济增长的影响十分重要。首先，我们将利用新的计量方法，分析和预测我国人口、人口转变的机制和趋势；其次，以“统一增长理论”为基础，构建符合我国经济发展阶段和人口转变特征的模型，从较长的时间跨度研究我国人口转变和经济增长的关联机制，解释我国经济增长的阶段及转换；利用多阶段代际交叠模型（OLG），分析老龄化、少子化和生育政策对经济增长的影响；最后，针对我国所面临的潜在人口危机和经济失速，提出具有针对性的对策建议。