腐蚀海底管道爆破压力的多参数预测与评估研究

Submarine pipelines are the lifeline of modern offshore oil and gas engineering. But the corrosion of the submarine pipelines has become a prominent bottleneck for safely transporting the marine oil and gas. Scholars usually assess the burst behavior of the corroded submarine pipelines by using the empirical equations based on the experimental or numerical data, which is less scientific and accurate. Because of the difference of microscopic corrosion morphology, the burst behavior of corroded submarine pipelines has some randomness. To assess the burst pressure of the corroded submarine pipelines, we propose a new method to predict the burst probability by failure window. Starting from the modeling of corrosion morphology of submarine pipeline, this project creates a double arc model of corroded submarine pipelines. Based on the complex function method of elastic theory, we focus on the theoretical solution of corrosion submarine pipeline and the multi-parameter prediction of burst pressure. And then, we explore the matching characteristics of failure window and burst probability of corroded submarine pipeline and study the influence of corrosion condition, geometrical size and material properties on burst pressure and burst probability. In the end, numerical method and experiment are used to verify the conclusions. The results will greatly enrich our understanding of burst problems of corroded submarine pipeline and provide a new method and idea to establish more scientific and effective assessment system of corroded marine pipeline securities.

海底管道是现代海洋油气工程的“生命线”，但海底管道的腐蚀已成为制约海洋油气资源安全输运的突出瓶颈。腐蚀海底管道的爆破行为，学者们多采用实验数据或数值模拟结果拟合的经验公式直接评判，其科学性和准确性较差。由于微观腐蚀形貌的差异，腐蚀海底管道的爆破具有一定的随机性。为此，本项目以腐蚀海底管道爆破压力的评估为目标，提出一种利用失效窗口预测腐蚀海底管道爆破概率的全新方法。从海底管道腐蚀形貌的建模入手，本项目创建腐蚀海底管道的双圆弧模型，结合弹性理论的复变函数法，着重研究腐蚀海底管道的理论解和爆破压力的多参数预测，探索腐蚀海底管道的失效窗口和爆破概率的匹配特性，研究腐蚀状况、几何尺寸和材料特性等对爆破压力和爆破概率的影响，并应用数值方法和实验验证结论的正确性。研究结果将大大丰富我们对腐蚀海底管道爆破问题的认识，同时，也为构建更加科学有效的海底管道安全性评价体系，提供一个全新的方法和思路。

海底管道是现代海洋油气工程的“生命线”，但海底管道的腐蚀已成为制约海洋油气资源安全输运的突出瓶颈。腐蚀海底管道的爆破行为，学者们多采用实验数据或数值模拟结果拟合的经验公式直接评判，其科学性和准确性较差。由于微观腐蚀形貌的差异，腐蚀海底管道的爆破具有一定的随机性。为此，本项目以腐蚀海底管道爆破压力的评估为目标，提出一种利用失效窗口预测腐蚀海底管道爆破概率的全新方法。从海底管道腐蚀形貌的建模入手，本项目创建腐蚀海底管道的双圆弧模型，结合弹性理论的复变函数法，着重研究腐蚀海底管道的理论解和爆破压力的多参数预测，探索腐蚀海底管道的失效窗口和爆破概率的匹配特性，研究腐蚀状况、几何尺寸和材料特性等对爆破压力和爆破概率的影响，并应用数值方法和实验验证结论的正确性。项目顺利完成预期目标。基于双极坐标系建立腐蚀海底管道的双圆弧模型，并给出模型的理论解；结合腐蚀海底管道的理论解，给出海底管道爆破压力的多参数预测方程，预测结果与实验数据吻合；提出腐蚀管道的失效窗口法，并对失效窗口和爆破概率之间的关系进行了初步分析。项目标注SCI论文8篇，申请发明专利2项，正在撰写SCI论文3篇。