人民币加入SDR以后的汇率制度选择

RMB's inclusion in SDR marks important milestone for the reform of RMB exchange rate regime. Choice of exchange rate regime after RMB's SDR inclusion is going to have deep impact on the reform of international monetary system and world economy in the long term. This project aims to scientifically answer three questions relevant to RMB exchange rate regime after its SDR inclusion, i.e., optimal RMB exchange rate regime, the spillover effects of the choice of RMB exchange rate regime, and the relationship between RMB exchange rate regime and international monetary system reform. 1) The research will develop a novel DSGE model of portfolio choice. The model aims to answer whether RMB should adopt independent floating provided the gradually relaxing capital control and increasingly active cross-border capital flows after joining SDR. 2) The research will decompose RMB exchange rate regime into its reference to basket currency and its independent fluctuation and forecast how these two parts affect the SDR exchange rate. A GVAR model will also be built to evaluate the spillover effects of the Chinese economy to the world under different exchange rate regime. 3) This research will originate a dynamic game model on the relationship between exchange rate regime and international monetary system reform. The model analyze a Stackelberg dynamic game in which countries in the system sequentially decide their exchange rate regime and whether they provide liquidity for the globe. The analysis will have implications on the equilibrium exchange rate regime and international monetary system under trade-capital investment circulation, international monetary coordination, etc.

加入SDR标志着人民币汇改的新起点，“入篮”以后的人民币汇率制度选择将对国际货币体系改革和世界经济产生深远影响。本项目从最优汇率制度，汇率制度选择的溢出效应，及汇率制度与国际货币体系改革的关系三个层次，为“入篮”以后人民币汇率制度选择问题提供科学性解答：1）本项目将开创性地建立基于资产组合理论的DSGE模型，研究在“入篮”后资本账户逐步开放且跨境投资日益活跃背景下，人民币是否要走向独立浮动。2）本项目将分解人民币汇率制度中参考货币篮子与独立波动的部分，分别计量两部分对SDR汇率的不同影响。同时将建立GVAR模型，从广义上测算不同汇率制度下我国经济对世界经济的溢出效应。3）本项目将首创汇率制度选择与国际货币体系改革的动态博弈模型，构造国际货币体系参与国依次决定是否为世界经济提供流动性的Stackelberg博弈，分析贸易-投资环流以及国际货币关系协调等因素下的汇率制度选择与国际货币体系均衡。