西部与丝路经济带前段国家农业互补性合作研究：潜力测度与机制优化

Although the strategy of “One Belt and One Road” has been implementing for more than two years, the main problems—the serious shortage of agricultural cooperation and both sides don’t transform the agricultural complementarity into mutual benefit—still exist. This state results from several restricting factors such as the cooperative mechanism has the characteristics of negotiation, soft constraint and non-institutional between the western region and the beginning countries of the silk road economic belt. This project tries to analyze agricultural complementarity, measure cooperation potential, optimize cooperation mechanisms between the western region and the beginning countries of the silk road economic belt and other key issues, based on statistical data, survey data and typical cases. Using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the existing agricultural cooperation projects; to measure the complementarity of the 18 subdivide indicators of agricultural production elements by using the “1- similarity”index，and calculate the complementarity of agricultural product trade by three competitive index such as the revealed comparative advantage index and three complementary indexes such as trade intensity index；building the potential coefficient of both sides’ agricultural cooperation by agricultural complementary coefficient、convenient coefficient of transportation、industry fit coefficient and friendly coefficient to realizes the static measure of cooperation potentials, and building potential index model by adding the GDP scale of agriculture and the growth rate of agricultural industry in order to measure the cooperation potential dynamically.Finally, try to explore the theoretical framework of agricultural cooperation mechanism between western region and the beginning countries of the silk road economic belt ,and put forward design thinking of mechanism optimization and safeguard measures.

“一带一路”战略实施两年多来西部与丝路经济带前段国家农业合作严重不足，双方农业互补性没有转化为互利性，合作机制具有协商性、软约束性和非制度性特点，这些成为影响双方农业合作的制约因素。本项目利用统计资料、调研数据和典型案例，试图解决西部与丝路前段国家的农业互补性分析、合作潜力测度与合作机制优化等问题。用模糊综合评价法对双方已有农业合作项目进行评价；用“1-相似度”指数对农业生产要素的18个细分指标进行互补性度量，用显示性比较优势指数等三个竞争性指标、贸易强度指数等三个互补性指标计算农产品贸易的互补性；用农业互补系数Hij、交通便捷系数Lij、产业契合度系数Yij和关系友好系数Fij构建双方农业合作潜力系数，实现合作潜力静态测度，并加入农业GDP规模和农业产业增长速度，构建潜力指数模型，完成动态合作潜力测度；探索西部与丝路前段国家农业合作机制的理论框架，提出机制优化的设计思路及其保障措施。

本项目对西部地区和丝路前段国家农业互补性进行了系统分析，探究了双方的农业合作潜力和合作机制。主要对比分析了西部与丝路前段国家开展农业合作的基础条件；运用比较优势指数、贸易强度指数和产业内贸易指数对中国与俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦等丝路前段国家农产品贸易特征进行了分析；对中国与哈萨克斯坦两国农业发展进行比较研究，分析了两国农产品贸易的国际竞争力和互补性，并运用拓展贸易引力模型测算两国农产品贸易的潜力；对中亚五国的粮食问题展开研究，总结了其自然地理和人文地理概况，测算了粮食生产潜力与发展潜力，深入研究中亚地区粮食进出口贸易的影响因素，测算哈萨克斯坦的粮食国际竞争力及粮食出口贸易潜力；采用三阶段DEA-Windows方法测算哈萨克斯坦的粮食生产效率，进而分析粮食生产效率的动态演变特征和区域差异性；采用GAEZ方法，定量分析中亚五国9种粮食作物的潜在单产及潜在面积，并测算粮食生产潜力、发展潜力以及发展潜力幅度，探究了中国与中亚地区开展粮食安全合作的可能性；并运用50家粮油企业调查资料对西部企业在“走出去”过程中面临的风险进行评价；基于不同参与主体在海外耕地投资过程中的有限理性行为，构建中国企业、东道国政府和东道国土地所有者三方演化博弈模型，分析了其渐进稳定性和演化稳定策略；通过构建农业合作潜力指数对总体农业合作潜力进行了动态预测；最后，提出了西部与丝路前段国家农业互补性合作优化机制的路径选择及其保障措施。