基于生态位模型的粮食产量模拟研究——以东部非洲为例

Food security has evolved into a worldwide pressing issue that tops national and regional peace and development agenda, as a result of compounding effects like global climate change, industrialization and urbanization, etc. Crop distribution and yields information has been attached great importance in terms of delivering food security situation, establishing policies that help to promote agricultural production and food security. Currently, the studies into spatial distribution and yields of food crops are still isolated, with their modelling still dominated by sophisticated mechanistic models. Due to its requirements for large input of datasets and parameters, the application of mechanistic models has largely been restrained, especially for areas with poor agricultural research and monitoring. Ecological-Niche-Models (ENM), or Species Distribution Models (SDMs) based on ecological niche theories, have been widely used for the modelling of species spatial distribution and, considering the close relationship between crop distribution and crop yields, should be highly potential for crop yields modelling, if combined with statistical techniques. This project aims to choose East Africa as a case study area, build the distribution and yield models for major food crops of the region using ENMs. Based on that, the project will then analyze the model suitability, explore regional food production situation and temporal trend, and offer managerial and policy suggestions for promoting food production in East African countries.

在全球气候变化、工业化和城市化等方面因素的影响下，粮食安全已经成为全世界高度关注的，涉及国家、地区的和平与发展的重要议题。粮食的产量及其分布是掌握国家或者地区的粮食安全状况、制定相应政策促进农业生产和保障粮食安全的关键信息。当前，对于粮食作物的分布和产量的研究仍然处于分离的状态，且多采用复杂的机理模型，而对数据和参数的需求又严重限制其推广与应用，特别是在农业基础研究和监测薄弱的地区。生态位模型，或者说基于生态位的物种分布模型，已经被广泛用于物种的生态地理分布模拟。鉴于粮食作物的产量同其生态位的密切相关性，利用生态位模型结合统计分析的方法为区域粮食产量模拟提供了新的思路和方法。本研究以东非为例，利用生态位模型，探索建立该地区主要粮食作物的分布及其产量模型，进而分析模型的适用性，了解东非粮食生产状况和趋势，并为东非粮食增产提供管理和政策建议。

东部非洲地处热带地区，水热资源丰富，农业生产潜力较大。然而，由于历史、政治经济和气候变化等方面因素影响，当前东非多个国家和地区仍然面临粮食安全的挑战。我国政府倡议共建“一带一路”以来，加强与东非地区的农业合作、推动中非农业资源和生产领域实现互利合作，优势互补，成为农业领域的前沿课题。本项目旨在利用生态位模型并结合统计分析的方法，结合遥感影像分析和实地调研，探索建立东非地区主要粮食作物的分布及产量模型，进而分析模型的适用性，了解东非粮食生产状况和趋势，并为东非粮食增产提供管理和政策建议。通过研究，本项目利用MaxEnt模型，对玉米、小麦和水稻在东非地区的分布进行了模拟，并结合遥感植被指数（NDVI）数据，构建了玉米和小麦的产量模型。进一步，本研究还分析了影响玉米和小麦种植的环境因素和作物生长特征，并基于野外调查情况，提出推动地区粮食安全的意见和建议，基本实现了项目预期的目标。本项目研究将为东非地区粮食生产布局、中非农业合作以及粮食种植管理调控等方面工作，提供一定的信息支撑和技术指导。