青藏高原东南部念青唐古拉山冰川物质平衡的建模与模拟

The project focuses on the the Xibu glacier,Xianggelha glacier and Midui glacier on the Nyianqentanggulha mountain range.Due to a lack of in situ measurements, modle-based studies of glacier mass balance in the Tibetan Plateau are very limited. An energe balance and snow surface temperature model is here applied for analysis of glacier mass balance sensitivity to recently climate change.The main target of the project will be to derive models for calculating the mass balance of Nyainqentangulha glaciers on the sorth-east part of the Tibetan Plateau based on data that are available for the last 10 -15 years. Since most of the precipitation comes in the summer season, the model is very sensitive to the air temperature,which will directly control that the precipitation is rain or snow on the glacier. A good estimate of the air temperature versus height is consequently of great importance..We will apply the models to study the sensitivity of the mass balance for any large scale changes of air temperature and other meteorological factors， so that we can have better understanding on how this glacier responsds to recent climate change，as scientific solution of glacial resource provide the necessary scientific basis。

长期以来,由于缺乏实地测量,严重制约了青藏高原冰川物质平衡的模拟化研究。本项目拟应用能量平衡模式与雪表面温度模式来探讨和分析冰川物质平衡对近期气候变化的响应。主要目的是基于10至15年的实地气象数据，模拟研究位于青藏高原东南部念青唐古拉山西部冰川、香格拉冰川和米堆冰川的物质平衡。由于降水主要来自于夏季，这种现象在青藏高原尤其显著，所以物质平衡模式对于空气温度非常敏感，因为空气温度的变化直接决定着冰川上的降雨或者降雪之间的变化。因此精确估算温度的垂直梯度值变得尤其重要。本项目的结果将有助于探讨冰川物质平衡随空气温度等主要气象因子的敏感度，也将有助于理解冰川变化与近期气候变化间的相互关系，并可为冰川资源的科学应对措施提供必要的科学基础。